Tourism industry braced for big chill

Tourism New Zealand expects the number of tourists coming here to drop, despite marketing campaigns.

International visitor numbers are likely to drop by 5 per cent in the next three months and visitors from long-haul markets are expected to fall the furthest, Tourism New Zealand says.

New Zealand's international marketing body yesterday said the industry was bracing for a slower than usual autumn and winter.

Industry analysts and commentators have been predicting a significant drop in visitor numbers since before Christmas.

Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Shamubeel Eaqub said in January he expected international visitor numbers to fall by 5.3 per cent in 2009.

But a steep fall has yet to come and many operators say they have had a better than expected summer.

During the February 2009 year, visitor numbers fell by 2 per cent or 60,300 people to 2.425 million, although February was down 9 per cent on that month last year.

Tourism New Zealand chief executive George Hickton said 2009 was expected to be more difficult but operators were holding up.

"The industry is showing its resilience and adapting to the current downturn."

But the short term is expected to get tougher.

Tourism New Zealand said it expected long-haul markets to be down between 5 per cent and 10 per cent although arrivals from Australia - New Zealand's largest source market - would hold the decline to 5 per cent.

The worst hit region is predicted to be New Zealand's second largest market - Britain - with visitors expected to be down 15 to 20 per cent.

Tourism New Zealand said the UK was having a rough ride out of the downturn and this was being reflected in an accelerated fall in visitor numbers.

The United States and Japan - also key markets for New Zealand - are both expected to be down between 10 and 15 per cent.

The biggest uncertainty is China where the prediction varies between a drop of 10 per cent to 20 per cent.

Tourism New Zealand began its first marketing campaign in China last year through a $5.6 million push into Shanghai.

The campaign finished last month but has yet to deliver higher numbers of visitors to New Zealand.

In the year to February visitors from China were down 22 per cent with a number of one-off events such as the Olympics, the Sichuan earthquake and the financial crisis having a negative impact on travel.

Prime Minister John Key is in China this week to try to drum up business.

But Tourism New Zealand said despite the trip and positive affirmations from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that China was in a position to tough out the financial crisis, visitor arrivals were expected to continue falling as business travel declined.

The one bright light remains Australia. Visitor numbers from across the ditch have grown in the last three months although Tourism New Zealand said post-Easter travel demand was lacking at the moment.

However it hoped a new campaign, funded by the Government's $2.5 million in extra funding, would help boost numbers by up to 3 per cent over the next three months.