Mood of the Boardroom: Are we at peak inflation?

Paula Rebstock. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Fifty per cent of CEOs responding to the Herald survey believe New Zealand is not yet past peak inflation.

A third — 31 per cent — believe inflation has peaked and 9 per cent are unsure.

Mitre 10's Andrea Scown said, "I want to say yes, as we have seen some positive trends.

However, as a significant importer, New Zealand will be subject to energy price impacts on the manufacture of goods by global supply partners. Much of this energy cost has been hedged and the impact as these hedges run out will be a sharp upswing in the cost of manufacture passing through to the costs of goods sold."

This caution was underscored by a high-profile director: "We have had some indications in the last eight weeks that we may have peaked. However, since that time the European/UK energy crisis has accelerated. We won't be immune to these impacts."

Persistently high inflation and cost of living pressures have become a huge concern for CEOs since the 2021 survey. They rated it as the fourth highest domestic concern affecting business confidence in New Zealand in the 2022 survey, scoring it at 8.30/10 on a scale where 1 equals no concern and 10 equals extremely concerned.

Official figures underline their concerns.

Stats NZ said consumer prices increased by 1.7 per cent for the three months ended June, pushing the annual rate to 7.3 per cent from 6.9 per cent. This was a 32-year high and helped fuel a cost of living crisis the Government has attempted to ease through a range of measures.

Precinct Properties Craig Stobo, cautioned "we have yet to see the full flow through of inter alia food prices, wage increases and a peak in inflation expectations".

"We may have reached the peak in headline inflation, but as we are seeing with supplier cost increases in our businesses, high inflation looks set to stay for some time," added Foodstuffs CEO Chris Quin.

"Based on the sectors we are exposed to it feels like we could see the peak in the next quarter," said Tourism Holdings' Grant Webster.

Beca's David Carter cautioned salary pressures to continue as a result of the constrained labour market and a growing public sector, and this is against a backdrop of rising business uncertainty.

In this environment monetary policy is a blunt tool.

Dame Paula Rebstock, chair of Kiwi Group Holdings, predicted central banks will struggle against the self-reinforcing mechanism at play with wage and cost increases.

"A tripartite approach may be worth trying as a circuit-breaker to avoid getting stuck with unsustainable inflation. Will also need fiscal policy to play its part to get back to price stability and the benefits it gives to economic certainty and growth."