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Home / Business / Markets

Stock Takes: Will investors cough up for Air NZ?

Tamsyn Parker
By Tamsyn Parker
Business Editor·NZ Herald·
1 Apr, 2022 04:20 AM9 mins to read

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Air New Zealand board chair Dame Therese Walsh and Tourism Minister Stuart Nash joined CEO Greg Foran who announced the airline will return to the Big Apple later this year. Video / NZ Herald

Institutional investors have largely steered clear of Air New Zealand in the past few years, while retail investors have dived in.

But that could change with the airline's $2.2 billion recapitalisation plan announced on Wednesday night.

Investors are being asked to buy into a $1.2b rights issue. Existing shareholders will get the right to buy two new shares for every one they own, at a price of 53c a share.

That is a substantial discount to the $1.38 at which Air NZ was trading before the announcement was made and the ex-rights issue price of around 81c.

Harbour Asset Management's Shane Solly said institutional investors had generally been underweight in Air NZ versus the benchmark.

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"Many have been waiting for the recapitalisation to start thinking about Air NZ again," he said.

"It may be you see some institutional investors start to revisit [the stock] - it is definitely going to be a volatile month."

Air NZ has been a favourite with smaller investors in the past two years, particularly those who use the Sharesies investment trading platform.

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Solly said he hoped those investors had bought the shares with their eyes wide open.

"I'm presuming they went into the pre-capital-raise market mindful of the capital raise coming through - it has been very well signalled. There should be no surprises in the amount, no surprises in when."

But some investors have already chosen to sell, with the share price falling in early trading yesterday morning.

Solly said the large capital raise could flow through to the rest of the market. Some investors might choose to cash in other investments to buy into Air NZ.

He noted that the rights issue trading period would run for nearly a month, with trading opening on April 4 and closing on April 26.

"It is a reasonably long period of time. It's not unusual but a lot can happen in a month for an airline."

He pointed to the volatility in the price of oil in the past month.

Solly urged private investors to read the documents and get professional advice.

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"The airline is going to be smaller in terms of its footprint but it has the potential to be as profitable as it was.

"That is all predicated on competition not coming flooding back again, oil prices - certainly a headwind there at the moment."

He said the framework the airline had put in place was constructive, but airlines always faced periods of unusual challenges.

"There is a reason we need a higher reward for investing in cyclical businesses. it's exposed to global geo-politics, sentiment changes from consumers."

He said that all-up, the pricing seemed "reasonable".

"It is a better entry point than perhaps was the case before."

Will Synlait Milk show it has been able to diversify? Photo / File
Will Synlait Milk show it has been able to diversify? Photo / File

Glass half full?

All eyes will be on Synlait Milk's half-year result today to see if the company's future prospects have improved after its first full-year loss in nine years in 2021.

Greg Smith, head of distribution and strategy at Devon Funds Management, said there should be an improvement and pointed to Synlait's milk price forecast upgrade this week as a positive sign.

"I think there will be a lot of interest in how that all flows through to the bottom line and also what success they have had in diversifying their product and customer base given the historical reliance on a2 [milk].

"They said last year that they were going to diversify that business - what does that look like?"

Synlait made a loss of $28.5 million for the July year after infant formula sales fell by 35 per cent to 34,362 tonnes.

But it promised a return to profit this year.

"By the end of full-year 2023, the recovery plan will have seen Synlait return to similar levels of profitability, operating cash flows, and debt ratios as the years leading into 2021," it said at the September result briefing.

Synlait's share price and profits have been strongly linked to a2 milk in the past and a2 is still struggling to get back on track.

Smith said a2 had had its fair share of problems and while its last update was okay, it wasn't great.

"It doesn't seem like things have suddenly got a lot better for a2 or will anytime soon. I think there will be a lot of interest in that."

Synlait's share price was down 5.87 per cent over the year to Wednesday's close of $3.21.

Casino fortunes

Australian casino operator Star Entertainment Group is in hot water as it faces damning evidence against it over money laundering, in a government review of its casino licence.

Star CEO Mark Bekier fell on his sword this week and board members could follow in the coming weeks.

But while Star's fortunes have faded, it seems New Zealand's SkyCity Entertainment Group could finally be seeing some light at the end of the tunnel.

The increase in the indoor limit of people from 100 to 200 will be welcome news, as will the reopening of the border, which could allow international high-rollers as well as other tourists to come back to the casino.

Pre-Covid, Star was said to be interested in acquiring SkyCity but a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then.

However, one factor could draw them together again. Australian media speculated this week that former SkyCity chief Nigel Morrison would likely be approached as a possible candidate to replace Bekier at Star.

Former SkyCity Entertainment chief executive Nigel Morrison. Photo / Doug Sherring.
Former SkyCity Entertainment chief executive Nigel Morrison. Photo / Doug Sherring.

Morrison spent eight years at the top of SkyCity and knows the business inside out, so if a merger was back on the cards there would be no better candidate to bring them together.

While SkyCity does have an Australian foothold with its Adelaide casino, it doesn't operate in the major cities of Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane.

For now, Star will have its hands full handling the current crisis.

Reopening retail

Easing Covid restrictions are also likely to be a boon for the retail sector.

The Warehouse Group and KMD Brands (formerly Kathmandu Holdings) reported results last week revealing how tough the past six months have been.

But analysts at Forsyth Barr are upbeat on the stocks, maintaining outperform ratings on them both.

The analysts said The Warehouse result showed a tale of two quarters, with first-quarter sales down 15 per cent on the prior period because of Covid restrictions limiting store openings, while second-quarter sales were up 3 per cent on the same period a year earlier.

The cost of doing business was up 6 per cent over the half, with the red sheds seeing a 10 per cent increase.

"While a portion of costs will subside with the pandemic, we continue to expect inflationary pressures over the near to medium term."

But they said that based on a one-year forward price/earnings multiple of 11 times its estimates, the company was trading at a discount to its regional peers, making it attractive.

The Warehouse result showed two completely different quarters. Photo / File
The Warehouse result showed two completely different quarters. Photo / File

Meanwhile, they viewed KMD Brands' current valuation as an "attractive entry point" for a company with enhanced channel diversity, reduced seasonal risk and international growth aspirations. "KMD is one of our most preferred New Zealand stocks."

Across the retail sector, the analysts are seeing three trends: the percentage of sales online continues to rise, freight costs are putting pressure on gross margins and supply delays have made it hard for retailers to manage inventory levels.

KMD was carrying about $250m in inventory in its 2022 first half compared to $230m a year earlier while The Warehouse Group was carrying $530m in inventory, down from $581m, though the value of its goods in transit had risen from $66m to $100m.

"Supply chain delays have made it difficult for retailers to manage inventory levels throughout the pandemic, with many choosing to invest in more inventory to mitigate the delays.

"The implications of late product delivery can include lost sales or higher clearance levels. Ultimately, we expect inventory levels will return to normal as supply chain pressures begin to ease."

Well-funded

New Zealand's top 50 listed companies appear to be well prepared as the country faces rising interest rates.

Analysis by law firm Chapman Tripp has found the NZX top 50 are going into the post-Omicron phase of the pandemic with significant proportions of their bank facility commitments still available for drawing.

Chapman Tripp partner Cathryn Barber said companies were thinking a bit harder about their funding mix having experienced times of stress, particularly in March 2020 when they all needed to go to their banks and many raised emergency facilities.

"I think they thought really hard about whether that worked for them or not. Having said that, the economy has been so strong since then I think most of them have found they didn't need the money they raised or the waiver they got and so for a lot, it has gone back to business as usual."

Of the 50 top companies, 47 have bank debt available to them and only three have no debt. Of those with debt, 26 have offered security and 18 have unsecured facilities - eight of which are in the top 10 companies.

Retail bond issues remain popular, with seven in the 2021 financial year raising $1.183b. There was also a rise in green or sustainability linked bonds.

"There is a bit of shareholder and investor pressure. I think people are generally looking at climate change and environmental and sustainability issues are becoming more on-trend. The banks all have strong mandates to provide sustainable debt so they are pushing these products to companies." Barber said it made good business sense for companies to pursue it.

Chapman Tripp partner Cathryn Barber. Photo / Supplied
Chapman Tripp partner Cathryn Barber. Photo / Supplied

The other trend companies were noticing was rising funding costs. But Barber said the top 50 were pretty well placed to handle this.

"They are all large companies, they will have the ability to absorb that, they are all well-managed, well run." She said feedback from its survey showed companies expected price rises but nobody was overly concerned by that.

"Where it is going to cause more pressure is further down when you get to the smaller businesses who don't have as much resource available to them."

Although there was not much publicly available information on smaller companies, Barber said anecdotally they had fewer resources and less profit, so every bit they have to pay out to the banks is reducing their profit.

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