New Zealanders left the country in record numbers. Photo / 123rf
New Zealanders left the country in record numbers. Photo / 123rf
Migration both in and out of New Zealand continues to run hot with record migrant arrivals being offset by record departures by New Zealand citizens.
There was an annual net migration gain of 130,900 in the year to February 2024.
The 253,200 migrant arrivals and 122,300 migrant departures in theFebruary 2024 year were, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period, Stats NZ said.
Annual net migration provisionally peaked in the year ended November 2023, with a gain of 142,200.
The long-term average for February years (pre-Covid 2002–2019) is 118,800 migrant arrivals, 91,600 migrant departures, and 27,300 net migration.
The figures would provide a “reality check to those thinking that net immigration flows will rapidly cool,” said ASB senior economist Mark Smith.
There were 226,000 migrant arrivals in the year to February (exceeding the previous record before 2023, which was 138,300 in the March 2020 year.
For non-New Zealand citizens, the net migration gain of 178,600 in the February 2024 year compared with a net migration gain of 84,100 in the February 2023 year.
It was also above the long-term average for February years (pre-Covid 2002–2019) of 47,600 a year.
The February year provisionally also saw two annual records for New Zealand citizens with 74,900 migrant departures, exceeding the previous record before 2023 of 72,400 in the February 2012 year.
That was net migration loss of 47,700, exceeding the previous record before 2023, which was 44,400 in the February 2012 year.
The average annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 26,900 in the February years 2002–2013, and 7200 in the February years 2014–2019.
On a monthly, basis net migration spiked in February compared to January, at 11,651 compared to 5458 in January.
“February saw a pickup in arrivals, including the influx of international students at the start of the school year,” said Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon.
“There was also a strong lift in returning New Zealanders, though we suspect this will be short-lived – the migration estimates have at times struggled to distinguish between genuine migrants and people returning from extended overseas holidays.”
While arrivals had largely held the line, departures have continued to trend higher over the last year, he said.
“We see this as a combination of catch-up movements after the Covid border closure, and people looking for opportunities elsewhere as job prospects deteriorate in New Zealand.”
Stats NZ’s Monthly Employment Indicator showed that while the number of filled jobs was still rising, it was no longer growing fast enough to absorb the growth in the population, he said.
Gordon noted that the ongoing strength of migrant inflows had prompted the Government to tighten some of the criteria for the Accredited Employer Work Visa (AEWV).
“We have not revised our migration forecasts in response to these changes,” he said.
“The AEWV is only one avenue for migrants, currently accounting for around 30 per cent of arrivals (including the partners of workers). Our view is that as the economy continues to cool, deteriorating work prospects are more likely to be the deciding factor for where people choose to move.”
Michael Gordon chief economist Westpac Bank
picture supplied
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For migrant arrivals in the February 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 50,800 arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of the Philippines, 35,000, China, 29,000, New Zealand, 27,200, Fiji, 11,100 South Africa, 8200, the United Kingdom: 7200 and Sri Lanka: 7100.
For migrant departures in the February 2024 year, New Zealand citizens were the largest group, with 74,900 departures. The next largest groups were citizens of: China 7600, India, 5100 Australia: 4800 and the United Kingdom, 4600.
Citizens of India, the Philippines, China, and Fiji drove net migration gains in the February 2024 year, Stats NZ said.
Country of citizenship is the nationality of the passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
If you have a burning question about the quirks or intricacies of economics, send it to liam.dann@nzherald.co.nz ... or leave a message in the comments section. He’ll try to answer in Inside Economics, a new column published every Wednesday.
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