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Home / Business / Companies / Energy

Inflation Nation: Grant Robertson on why he has no regrets despite inflation

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
21 Mar, 2022 04:30 AM5 mins to read

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Business Editor-at-Large Liam Dann talks to Deputy PM and Finance Minister Grant Robertson.

Business Editor-at-Large Liam Dann talks to Deputy PM and Finance Minister Grant Robertson.

"I understand the fear," says Finance Minister Grant Robertson, talking about the shockwaves this year's inflation has sent through the nation.

"I definitely understand, as a teenager in the early part of the 1980s, the kind of impact that high inflation has, especially on low-income households."

But despite the Government's moves to ease petrol prices by cutting taxes, Robertson says it isn't backing away from an ambitious programme of social investment.

We should expect the May Budget to remain focused on long-term issues like investing in the health sector and climate change initiatives.

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"Yes we have to manage debt back down, make sure I get our books back into surplus ... and we're set to do that in a way that continues to compare incredibly well to other countries," Robertson says.

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"I feel constant pressure - and it's not about Opposition parties - to make sure the spending we do is the right money, in the right place, at the right time."

Read More

  • Inflation Nation: Why the cost of living is rising ...
  • Liam Dann: Inflation is now Jacinda Ardern's biggest ...
  • Inflation Nation, Liam Dann: Grant Robertson deploys ...
  • 'Rock and a hard place': Liam Dann on inflation, rates, ...

Robertson rejects suggestions that the Government and Reserve Bank unleashed too much stimulus in their Covid response, adding to the inflation surge.

"We were faced with the prospect of a one in 100 year economic shock," he says.

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"Our goal was to protect lives and livelihoods. Today we sit here with unemployment at 3.2 per cent and the highest number of people in work we've ever had, good solid export receipts. We're doing well. Everybody can make their judgments on that," he says.

"I'll stand by the decisions. We just don't get to govern in hindsight, no matter how much we want to."

Robertson doesn't believe inflation is becoming embedded in the economy - as it was in the 1970s and 1980s.

"The economy is much better placed now to get on top of it. The settings are now much better than they were," he says.

"There's a level of transparency in the New Zealand economy that was absent in the Muldoon era ... and a Reserve Bank charged with a mandate they take seriously."

We have a broader base to our economy and a much better fiscal position, he says.

"While we still struggle and grapple with productivity I do think we're very efficient producers of what we do. We've added value to what we do to a lot of our exports.

"I think we're a more resilient economy than we were back then."

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Robertson accepts we have seen a cost of living crisis "for some families".

"I think when you see food prices go up, energy prices go up the way they have, it does represent that kind of thing for particularly low and middle-income families.

"The war in Ukraine did pus us to a very volatile place. It is an energy crisis."

But he points to a consensus of economic forecasts which suggest inflation will peak later this year and then ease.

"That remains the predominant forecast. I recognise the potential for that kind of spiral. But that's not where we are now," he says.

"If we were in that kind of place of course we would look again at the settings we've got and how we manage that.

"We obviously have to take a look at everything we do and I'm not complacent about that but I think that we'll get through this period."

People shouldn't see the fuel tax cut as a major reset of Government policy, he says.

"I wouldn't read anything into it, more than that we are responding to the immediate situation. We have recognised New Zealanders are under pressure and have acted pretty swiftly to do something.

"The challenge is - how do we balance those bigger long-term investments that are needed? I think we would be selling New Zealanders short if we allowed an infrastructure deficit to keep growing."

Robertson reiterates his support for the Reserve Bank and rejected the criticisms coming from Opposition parties that its dual mandate (targeting unemployment and inflation) has been a distraction.

"Every interaction I have with the RBNZ indicates to me that they understand that price stability is the core of their mandate," he says.

"We did add maximum sustainable employment but so has the Federal Reserve in the US got that mandate - I think its perfectly possible for them to continue to balance those things and to think about housing along the way."

On the tightening political polls Robertson is philosophical.

"People are grumpy and tired generally and I'm not surprised. We're all sick of Covid and sick of talking about it," he says.

"Unfortunately right now is the most challenging bit of the pandemic - albeit at a time when we're vaccinated and more able to handle it than we would have been in earlier phases."

A combination of that and the cost of living increases has "made people pretty grumpy with the world", he says.

"We're all a bit tired.

"We'll look back at the Covid period as one that New Zealand can be proud of," Robertson says.

"It's going to be hard in 2022. But we are a resilient economy. There are much better times ahead for New Zealand."

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