Barfoot & Thompson’s flood-hit data for February was extremely glum: the slowest February for Auckland house sales in a quarter of a century. Aucklanders are bracing to pay $900/fortnight more on mortgages and mortgage defaults are also rising.
On March 1, OneRoof found New Zealand house values had fallen 11.5 per cent since the market peak in February 2022, but the rate of decline is easing. The nationwide average property value tumbled more than $120,000 in the last 12 months to $971,000, driven by an aggressive and rapid lift in interest rates.
Today, QV’s Peterson took a longer-term view.
He compared values from February 28, 2020, around the time when the pandemic hit these shores to values last month.
His data showed a very different picture to that of REINZ, the agency and OneRoof
For those who want values to keep rising, QV is taking a more optimistic market view but for those who want them to fall, it’s not what they’ll want to hear.
“It has now been three years since the first official case of Covid-19 hit these shores, with the latest QV House Price Index for February 2023 showing that home values are still on average 24.5 per cent higher nationally than they were then, despite a 12.6 per cent average drop in the last 12 months and a 2.7 per cent average decline this quarter,” QV said today.
Peterson said we had a long way to go before we hit pre-lockdown values.
“The housing market is still an awfully long way from its pre-Covid-19 levels, even after more than a year of very significant reductions across the motu. In fact, if residential property values continue to fall at their current rate, it could still take up to two more years to hit their pre-pandemic level nationally. That’s a pretty big ‘if’, with the market expected to stabilise before then,” he said.
Wellington values are down the most: 21 per cent since last February 2022 to reach $854,092 last month. But that’s still $109,609 or 14.7 per cent higher than when the pandemic began in this country.
Auckland QV valuer Hugh Robson said all parts of Auckland had shown value drops.
Papakura was -6.1 per cent, Manukau -4.4 per cent, North Shore -2.1 per cent and Rodney -9.5 per cent.
”Things remain very quiet generally, with some properties taking a long while to sell and others not selling at all. There have been quite a few low sales in recent months – some nearly as low as pre-pandemic levels – and a notably big drop-off in development land sales. Obviously, developers are sitting tight and waiting to see what happens next,” Robson said.
Tauranga’s average home value could be about to drop under $1m. QV’s Derek Turnwald said values fell 1.7 per cent this quarter to $1.04m.
Waikato values fell 1.1 per cent in the quarter but Hamilton’s fell 2.7 per cent to $795,117.
In Rotorua, average home values were $552,947 three years ago but are now $643,044.
Taranaki values now stand at an average of $721,406, up 41 per cent on what they were three years ago before Covid.
Napier values dropped by an average 2.3 per cent in the last quarter. Hastings are down 3.1 per cent.
Canterbury values are now 45 per cent up on what they were before Covid.
And in Dunedin, values are 16 per cent above pre-Covid levels, at an average of $635,600, QV said.
