By Brian Fallow
Poor trade figures for July and a dip in world prices for some export commodities have economists warning it is too soon to herald a turning point on the export front.
Statistics New Zealand yesterday confirmed a merchandise trade deficit of $141 million for July and $1.7 billion for
the July year.
Exports for the July quarter at $5.86 billion were up 1.7 per cent on the same period last year but imports at $6.11 billion were up 10.8 per cent.
Dairy exports remained in the doldrums, down 16 per cent for the quarter on year-ago levels, reflecting weak prices and the drought towards the end of last season.
BNZ economist Peter Jolly said a mild winter had raised expectations of a lift in dairy output this season, although the full export benefits would not be felt until later in the year.
Forestry exports were up 40 per cent in the July quarter compared with the same period last year reflecting recovery in Asia. But ANZ Bank's commodity price index fell 1.3 per cent in August in world price terms, driven by a retracing of gains seen in sawn timber prices in recent months, along with falls in horticultural prices.
ANZ chief economist Bernard Hodgetts said: "Even a recovery in manufactured exports isn't going to pack much punch in the context of a still lacklustre commodity export performance."
There had been some lift in beef and lamb prices, Mr Hodgetts said, but overall it was "steady as she goes".
Exports to Asia were up 4 per cent in the quarter on year-ago levels, while exports to the US were flat. Exports to Australia were up 10 per cent.
Mr Jolly said the poor July trade figures were not encouraging for the current account despite strong growth in the tourism sector.
