PM Jacinda Ardern lays on the charm offensive to business, to try and lift business confidence and quell fears of a economic downturn. New Zealand Herald Cartoon by Rod Emmerson
PM Jacinda Ardern lays on the charm offensive to business, to try and lift business confidence and quell fears of a economic downturn. New Zealand Herald Cartoon by Rod Emmerson
When the Reserve Bank slashed the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 1 per cent in August, the business community sat bolt upright.
It felt like the central bank had given shock treatment to a patient that didn't really need it.
What did the governor know that therest of us didn't?
Clearly the economy was cooling, economic activity was getting weaker and there was heightened uncertainty about escalating trade tensions between the US and China.
Other central banks were also easing monetary policy to support their economies.
The last time the Reserve Bank went more than 25 points in one go was in reaction to major events such as the Christchurch earthquakes, the September 2001 terrorist attacks in the US and the global financial crisis.
Mark Lister, a senior analyst at Craigs Investment Partners, best summed up the reaction, telling Jenny Ruth of BusinessDesk: "It looks odd to all of us that we've just had a 50 basis point rate cut – no one thinks we're in the sort of territory that we need a 50 point cut in the OCR."
About the same time, many of New Zealand's largest companies were reporting financial results for the full year.
Although not spectacular, the overall picture was more positive than negative.
Actual profit growth was slightly better than expectations and post-result revisions showed an upward bias at the revenue line.
When it came to companies' outlook statements, the future was clouded with uncertainty – mainly on the international front.
However, it pointed more to a gradual and short-lived slowdown rather than a tumble down the economic cliff.
What appeared to be eroding business confidence was government policy around the environment and labour law reform in particular, and also the Coalition's lack of decisiveness.
These bugbears were laid bare in the Herald's Mood of the Boardroom series last month. But underneath the gloom, companies are still doing okay and for the most part have strong balance sheets to cope with any slowdown.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says the economy isn't in such terrible shape.
This week's Herald series on Building Confidence is not just about finding positives in the economy. It's about taking a broader look at what drives business sentiment and concluding that it's not all bad. It's also about dealing with adversity and preparing and coping for what may come.
There are good reasons to be concerned about the global economy, as ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner highlighted in yesterday's article. But as she also points out, New Zealand's own economic situation is hardly calamitous.
If the world economy collapses, we are in for a tough time to be sure.
But let's not act as though it's already happened.
The patient on the Reserve Bank operating table might be feeling poorly and could do with fiscal adrenaline. But it's certainly not in that dire shape.
