And yet the complex and multi-generational challenges that we face will keep coming, becoming more complex as they are left poorly attended, and we must be able to respond. And rapid changes – environmental, technological and sociological – will continue to compound our world.
A few of those challenges immediately come to mind.
- Our human capital is being threatened by an underperforming education system which has fallen well behind global benchmarks. The rising challenge of growing mental health concerns, especially for our young people, needs to be understood and addressed at its roots.
- Nearly half our population is effectively closed out of house ownership as a result of constrained land supply and immigration policy, fuelled by a decade or more of very low interest rates. This threatens our social cohesion and is foreign to our traditional values.
- We have major deficiencies in our local infrastructure (transport, hospitals, housing) for which there is no visible funding solution and which impair the productivity of our people and assets.
- Our traditional sources of export income (particularly agriculture and tourism) are threatened by global pressures on carbon-intensive industries, and by our very high reliance on one trading partner. Desirably, we would diversify this earnings base. The need to do so is highlighted by our trading and investment deficit with the rest of the world (our current account) which stands at close to $30 billion per annum.
- We must meet our climate obligations. We need urgently to build more resilience into our housing and other infrastructure to protect against the risks of climate change events. This raises major issues in terms of funding, and insurability.
- We have a number of young businesses developing new ideas and processes in IT, agritech and medicine. These businesses need the support structures to ensure they thrive, including access to capital and know-how.
- We remain unclear about our place in the world and how to ensure our ongoing relevance.
- And we have a clearly contested view of how we might develop as a diverse and multicultural society and liberal democracy, but one based on and respectful of the Treaty/Te Tiriti.
The challenges noted above are typically intertwined and potentially affect many stakeholders over generations.
Currently, our debates in the public square too often feature contentious rhetoric and short-term point-scoring rather than a serious and open discussion. The three, four or five-year political cycles of our representative democracy do not deal well with problems of a longer-term, inter-generational nature. Nor do our siloed decision-making processes and our lack of strong, well-funded regional decision-making bodies.
We tend to focus unduly on our own backyard with too little reference to our peers globally, where many of the challenges we face are currently being addressed and where we can find many useful proxies.
What might we do to encourage more meaningful conversations and a more future-oriented mindset? Can we develop the capability for more strategic and thoughtful discussions?
In the first instance, our focus should be on our collective vision for our country. What might a sustainable and cohesive 2050 Aotearoa New Zealand look like?
More effective partnerships between the political, private, academic and civil sectors can shift the dialogue and allow governments to engage in long-term substantive developments to build our nation.
There are also useful tools of participative democracy which can improve the effectiveness of our conversations in a civil and collaborative environment, strengthening our social cohesion, celebrating our diverse cultures and creating opportunities for multiple voices. Citizen assemblies on complex issues from climate policy to water reform, assisted dying and transport planning can be an effective way to improve our long-term decision-making capabilities. New digital techniques that go well beyond tokenistic consultation now exist and are employed elsewhere.
As another example, Wales has shown the value of a Commissioner for Future Generations, whose role is to ascertain whether policies are developed with regard to their inter-generational effects, bringing the voice of the future into today’s debates.
The core role of any government must be competent inter-generational stewardship to ensure the long-term health of our human, social, cultural, environmental and economic assets.
New Zealand’s future as a united, cohesive society will depend on open discussion and resolution of what can appear to be irreconcilable worldviews.
We need to require that our leaders honestly confront complex problems and promote serious discourse on long-term issues. We should expect greater resolution, by consensus, of matters that span political cycles and seek (and reward) less adversarial cross-party initiatives.
Bold and innovative leadership and developing clearer national goals for our collective future is the key to building more enduring levels of social and institutional trust and cohesion, and consequently a stronger and more resilient nation.
Sir Peter Gluckman is director at Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures and Bridget Coates is chairwoman at Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures.
