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Home / Business / Economy

Liam Dann: A strange and interesting time to be in Hong Kong

Liam Dann
By Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
11 Sep, 2019 06:11 AM5 mins to read

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Riot police block a street at central in Hong Kong last week. AP Photo/Vincent Yu

Riot police block a street at central in Hong Kong last week. AP Photo/Vincent Yu

It's a strange but interesting time to be on a business trip to Hong Kong.

The world's media is understandably focused on the protests which have shaken the city for the past three months.

But it creates the impression of a city under siege. That's mostly not the case - at least not during the working week.

I'm here as a guest of the Hong Kong government to attend the city's big Belt and Road Summit.

The Belt and Road - for the uninitiated - is China's largest foreign policy initiative.

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READ MORE:
• Herald journalist Keith Ng in Hong Kong: Police losing control as protesters' anger grows

It aims to create a new economic zone based around the ancient Silk Road trade route from China overland to Europe (the belt) and China's ancient maritime shipping routes (the road) down through South East Asia.

Through investment in infrastructure China hopes to lift economic growth in the region, ultimately boosting its own growth potential.

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If successful it could significantly change the economic and geo-political framework of global trade in the 21st century.

Hong Kong's GDP growth has slowed but there is optimism about the long term outlook. Photo/Getty
Hong Kong's GDP growth has slowed but there is optimism about the long term outlook. Photo/Getty

Not surprisingly, the Americans aren't keen on it.

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New Zealand signed up early - in fact we were the first western nation to do so (in May 2017) - even though technically we sit outside the original Belt and Road zone.

There has been no rush in to sign up for Belt and Road investment in New Zealand- although business groups are promoting the country's place in the global scheme as a stop over trade and tourist route through to South America.

Hong Kong is geographically more central to the Belt and Road Initiative of course.

It has been afforded special status in the project - signing an agreement with Beijing in 2017 - to act as a financial and business hub for the initiative.

Hong Kong's independent political and legal system that makes it a reassuring entry point for Western businesses wanting to partner on Belt and Road infrastructure and development projects.

That, at the time of the agreement at least, was seen as a valuable selling point by Chinese authorities.

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Just two years later more there seems to be much more tension there in the "one country, two systems" political dynamic.

I'm not claiming to be an expert on those tensions but clearly these are serious times for Hong Kong.

Protesters react to tear gas from Shum Shui Po police station in Hong Kong. Photo/AP
Protesters react to tear gas from Shum Shui Po police station in Hong Kong. Photo/AP

The Special Autonomous Region's most famous billionaire, Li Ka-Shing, this week described the situation as "the worst blow dealt to Hong Kong [since] the Second World War."

So very serious indeed - bearing in mind that WWII saw Hong Kong invaded and occupied by the Japanese.

Herald journalist Keith Ng has captured the sense of anger and urgency on the ground with protesters.

Meanwhile, I'm in a parallel universe where business carries on and commercial interests attempt to look through the disruption.

When I ask Dr Jimmy Chiang, Associate Director- General of Invest Hong Kong about the economic impact of the protests he is matter of fact, without getting into the politics.

So far the most material effect has been on the tourist sector, he says.

He hasn't heard of any examples of foreign companies or customers exiting Hong Kong due to the unrest.

The tourist sector is bearing the brunt of the unrest. Photo/Warren Buckland
The tourist sector is bearing the brunt of the unrest. Photo/Warren Buckland

Chiang is hopeful things will be resolved before it comes to that.

Right now the US/China trade war is still a much bigger problem for Hong Kong's economy, he says.

Trade volumes are well down and there are fears things will get worse.

Exports have fallen for six months in a row, shrinking by 5.7 per cent year on year in July, according to the South China Morning Post.

Imports were down 8.7 per cent.

Hong Kong's GDP growth has slowed - coming in at 0.6 per cent in the first and second quarters this year, the slowest growth rate in a decade.

But the protest turmoil is adding to uncertainty. Ratings agency Fitch last month cited protests as a factor when it downgraded Hong Kong to AA from AA+.

It was the first downgrade since handover in 1997.

Still, there is optimism about the long term outlook, underpinned by the huge growth potential of the wider region.

Dr George Lam, is chairman of the enormous government funded start-up campus, Cyberport.

Cyberport is a tech hub supporting more than 1400 start-up companies.

As well an enthusiasm for the Belt and Road Initiative Lam talks passionately about Hong Kong's central place in the Greater Bay Area (GBA).

GBA is a region that encompasses nine Southern Chinese cities including Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

It is the focus of a Mainland Chinese commercial development plan that Hong Kong also signed up to in 2017.

Students from Hong Kong University chains their hands outside schools in Hong Kong. Photo/AP
Students from Hong Kong University chains their hands outside schools in Hong Kong. Photo/AP

With a total population of 71 million and GDP of US$1.6 trillion the goal is to turn the region into a megalopolis to rival Japan's eastern seaboard.

Lam points out that with opening of the high speed rail link last year Hong Kong is now just 14 minutes ride away from Shenzhen on the Mainland.

It seems that as commercial and geographic barriers between Hong Kong and Mainland China dissolve, tensions around political independence are becoming more acute.

But for business interests the maintenance of the "one country, two systems" principal remains as important as ever.

As China looks to realise its grand ambition with the Belt and Road Initiative, Hong Kong's special status and independent legal system will hopefully play a valuable part.

- Liam Dann travelled as a guest of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region

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