Kiwis feeling more pessimistic about inflation, rate cuts and finances

According to a new survey, 38 per cent of New Zealanders believe their disposable income will fall in the next year.

More New Zealanders are pessimistic about the state of the economy and their finances than optimistic, according to a new study.

The Ipsos Cost of Living Monitor surveyed 1000 Kiwis as part of a 32-country global survey on a range of topics from inflation and interest rates to finances.

More than half (56 per cent) of Kiwis say the rate of inflation - now 4 per cent annually - will rise in the next year, compared with 20 per cent who believe it will fall and 22 per cent who think it will stay the same.

“While this is a significant drop from the last two years, the impacts of high inflation are top of mind, and higher than the global average,” said Carin Hercock, managing director of Ipsos New Zealand.

Expectations for higher inflation have dropped from 82 per cent in May 2022 and 71 per cent in February 2023.

Meanwhile, 44 per cent of New Zealanders think interest rates will increase over the next 12 months, compared to 24 per cent who say they will fall and 26 per cent who believe they will stay the same.

This week, the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) left its forecast for Official Cash Rate (OCR) cuts - the second quarter of next year - largely unchanged as it kept rates on hold at 5.5 per cent.

It said monetary policy would need to stay “restrictive for longer than anticipated in the February meeting, to ensure the inflation target is met”.

The RBNZ sees inflation returning to its 1 to 3 per cent target range by the end of 2024.

The Ipsos Cost of Living Monitor also found a higher proportion of Kiwis say they will have less money to spend in the next year - with 38 per cent saying they think their disposable income will fall, compared to those who think it will rise (26 per cent) or stay the same (33 per cent).

Twenty-four per cent of New Zealanders said they are finding it difficult to manage financially, compared with 26 per cent in February 2023. This was also slightly lower than the 32-country global average of 26 per cent.

The majority expect price rises in all surveyed categories: cost of food (73 per cent); cost of utilities (71 per cent); cost of other household shopping (70 per cent); motoring fuel costs (66 per cent); cost of going out (61 per cent); cost of subscriptions, i.e. Netflix, gym memberships (52 per cent); and mortgage/rent (48 per cent).

Amanda Dudding, research director of public affairs at Ipsos New Zealand said New Zealanders would be watching next week’s Budget with interest given their concerns around the cost of living.

“It is still seen to be the biggest issue facing our country and New Zealanders are not optimistic, with expectations of further rising day-to-day living costs, despite a quarter already saying they are struggling financially,” Dudding said.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis will deliver her maiden Budget on May 30.

In a pre-Budget speech, Willis promised 83 per cent of New Zealanders over 15 - and 93 per cent of households - would benefit from tax relief, but did not specify how much.

Cameron Smith is an Auckland-based journalist with the Herald business team. He joined the Herald in 2015 and has covered business and sports. He reports on topics including retail, small business, the workplace and macroeconomics.