His senior colleagues aren’t disposed to be unkind. While none ever warmed to him, they allow some credence for the tale that Luxon united National after four years of fratricide.
Then again, bloodletting always runs its course as MPs become exhausted. Events wouldn’t have unfolded much differently had Simon Bridges regained National’s leadership after Judith Collins’ fall, except for greater policy creativity.
Most likely, Luxon will be offered the option of staging his own departure and explanation. “Christopher,” the delegation will say, “there’s still time for a managed exit”. Luxon having no caucus support makes such generosity possible since there’s no risk he could pull a Houdini.
If Luxon doesn’t face reality, his removal will be messier. Yet, contrary to popular belief, parties’ polling usually improves immediately after even messy leadership changes.
That’s true even when things later unravel, including when Labour leader Chris Hipkins took over from Dame Jacinda Ardern, Todd Muller from Bridges, Bridges from Sir Bill English, David Cunliffe from David Shearer, and Dame Jenny Shipley from Jim Bolger. There are always good reasons that force coups.
This time, voters would see Luxon’s departure as much-needed evidence of good management. If accepting a managed exit, he could express pride in unifying his party, forming the coalition and promoting new leaders. “But I’m a brand guy,” he could explain, “and I can actually read market research and this is the best decision.”
This month’s Herald Mood of the Boardroom could provide context for Luxon’s exit, and he would end up being quite well regarded in National Party histories.
Luxon must quickly accept that, from the most senior ministers to the freshest backbenchers, there’s an emerging consensus that there’s no winning next year under his leadership.
National’s public and private polling has never been great under his leadership but is only getting worse. His personal numbers have always been terrible and are now abysmal.
Astoundingly, voters now say Labour is more competent on almost all the issues most concerning them. That isn’t objectively true, which suggests dislike of Luxon is the primary factor risking a change of Government.
But MPs equally understand the second sense that there’s no winning next year under Luxon.
Even if the coalition scrapes home because National wins more electorate seats than indicated by its party vote, Luxon will be even weaker relative to Winston Peters and David Seymour.
Those involved in National’s coalition negotiations blame Luxon for handing so much power to NZ First and Act. Despite him boasting about his negotiating experience and skill, they say he struggled to grasp that Act in particular had no leverage.
Luxon was advised to tell Seymour he was considering assembling Parliament to test Act in a confidence vote, but Luxon wouldn’t.
Insiders say Luxon remains unwilling to tell Peters or Seymour that, if they don’t like his decisions as leader of the country, he’s not afraid of early elections and saying why.
Consequently, whatever respect Peters or Seymour previously had for Luxon has been steadily evaporating. On recognising Palestine, Luxon has delegated his authority as leader of the country to Peters. Seymour now wants to rewrite the coalition’s housing rules.
If the coalition is returned, but with NZ First and Act increasing their numbers at National’s expense, Luxon would have zero authority in a second term.
With international tension over trade and security issues, and the Reserve Bank’s meltdown overseen by Luxon’s ally Neil Quigley, the macroeconomic, foreign-policy and institutional stability that New Zealand needs would be impossible were National even weaker.
Optimists point to 1992-93, when the 1990 benefit cuts, 1991 Mother of All Budgets and global slowdown saw National down to 34% at this point in the electoral cycle. National then fell to 28% in March of election year and was still at 29% in May.
But that was after the most radical reforms in New Zealand’s history, which National accepted would crash its poll ratings but could be confident would soon deliver strong economic growth.
Sure enough, by the June quarter, annual economic growth reached 4.4% and was a remarkable 7.3% by election day.
In contrast, Luxon’s Government has done nothing explaining National polling as low as 30%, nor anything remotely likely to deliver such strong growth in election year.
Even the recent Reserve Bank forecasts, which Luxon hailed, picked a pathetic 1.1% economic growth in the year to March 2026 and an uninspiring 2.7% to March 2027.
Luxon forgot to mention that the Reserve Bank also picked real wages to keep falling through to March 2027 before stagnating.
Despite warnings, including mine, National MPs lacked the foresight last spring to see where the economy and Luxon’s polling would head in 2026.
If they had, Willis would have been Luxon’s undisputed successor.
The Mood of the Boardroom will be authoritative, but Willis’ loyalty to Luxon has been damaging.
The darling of National’s conservatives, Simeon Brown, is seen as too young and outside the mainstream on social issues.
Erica Stanford and Chris Bishop are the last two standing. Stanford has done well in education, while Bishop is an equally successful reformer across transport, infrastructure, housing and resource-management law. He is by far National’s best performer in Parliament and the media.
Stanford connects with Auckland’s important North Shore, holding the safe National seat of East Coast Bays, previously held by her former boss, legendary party strategist Murray McCully.
Her pitch includes that – like Luxon, Sir John Key, and Sir Robert Muldoon – she lives in Auckland.
In contrast, Bishop, who made his name as a strategist for Gerry Brownlee and then Steven Joyce, is connected with the more working-class Hutt Valley, taking the safe Labour seat of Hutt South off legendary Labour hard-man Trevor Mallard, winning it again in 2023. His pitch includes that he knows how to get Labour people to vote blue.
Either Stanford or Bishop would do the top job much better than the incumbent, with far greater knowledge of New Zealand, its communities and the range of economic and social challenges they face.
After taking soundings from their colleagues about which has the greater breadth to deal with the multitude of issues that reach a Prime Minister’s WhatsApp account minute-by-minute, they should sort out the ordering themselves and work with Luxon to ensure a smooth transition before Christmas.
Sign up to Herald Premium Editor’s Picks, delivered straight to your inbox every Friday. Editor-in-chief Murray Kirkness picks the week’s best features, interviews and investigations. Sign up for Herald Premium here.
