Bernard Hickey: Our 'rock star' economy in numbers

How the figures change next year will determine whether the cracks spread or are only just superficial. Photo / Supplied

This was meant to be the year of the "rock star" economy. Finance Minister Bill English now describes it as the "rock solid" economy, but a few cracks are developing. Here are the Top 10 numbers of the year. How the figures change next year will determine whether the cracks spread or are only just superficial.

1 per cent

Annual inflation of 1per cent in the September quarter was much less than expected. If it doesn't rise next year as the Reserve Bank expects, pressure will grow for Governor Graeme Wheeler to cut the official cash rate.

A$.9

New Zealand's exchange rate briefly touched a 10-year-high of 95c Australian this week as Australia struggles to deal with a slump in iron ore prices and lower oil prices. If Australian interest rates are cut and ours increase next year, some will contemplate a parity party for the Kiwi dollar.

28 per cent

Retail sales growth to overseas websites last month was 28 per cent up on a year ago, dwarfing the 4 per cent sales growth for bricks and mortar stores and New Zealand online sites. Apple iPhone 6 sales helped, but if the trend continues, the Government will have to ask tough questions about New Zealand's GST base being undermined.

55per cent

Wholemilk powder prices slumped 55percent to US$2229 ($2897) a tonne this year. Fonterra is depending on a rebound to US$3500 a tonne by the middle of next year to justify its recently slashed $4.70 a kilo payout forecast. If it doesn't rebound, an even lower payout is likely, sucking more than $7 billion of income out of the economy.

19.9 per cent

The jump in Auckland house sales numbers in November from October suggests the hottest market in the country is firing up again. The Reserve Bank wants to wait for February and March figures for confirmation, and has no plans for another high LVR-style macro-prudential tool to cool the market.

$572 million

English and Prime Minister John Key are hoping the Treasury's forecast of a $572m budget deficit in 2014/15 will turn out to be pessimistic and that by October the Government will be back in surplus. If inflation remains weak and the dairy payout stays low their hopes may be dashed.

2.5 per cent

Average ordinary time hourly earnings growth was only 2.5 per cent this year and the Treasury expects wage growth to rise to 3.5 per cent over the next four years. Like price inflation, wage growth has been weaker than expected, partly because of the rise in net migration.

47,700

Net migration hit a record high 47,700 in the year to October and most expect it will peak at well over 50,000 by early next year because Australia's recovering economy is seen as making it more attractive for New Zealand job hunters to jump the ditch. If demand across the Tasman doesn't eventuate, net migration could go higher, adding downward pressure to wages and upward pressure to house prices.

$13.2 billion

Treasury lowered its estimate of the size of the nominal economy by $13.2b over the next four years because of lower inflation, even though it increased its estimate of average real GDP growth. It means the Government is finding it harder to raise the income taxes and GST it expected. Even weaker inflation will increase that nominal GDP gap.

46 per cent

Oil prices have crashed 46 per cent since July as a combination of reduced demand from China and Europe and an increase in newly fracked supplies from America has shocked everyone, Vladimir Putin in particular. The price drop is great news for consumers here and will drag even more on inflation and global interest rates, helping to keep downward pressure on fixed mortgage rates for homeowners.