NZ dollar tumbles after upbeat US outlook

The kiwi rose to 74.12 US cents as at 8am in Wellington from 73.16 cents. Photo / File

The New Zealand dollar fell after the top two Federal Reserve officials gave an upbeat message about the outlook for US interest rates this year, increasing the focus on upcoming data such as non-farm payrolls.

The kiwi traded at US72.39c as at 5pm yesterday, from US73.26c in New York on Friday before Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen and vice chairman Stanley Fischer spoke.

The trade-weighted index fell to 77.14 from 77.54.Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole central bankers retreat was the most anticipated event of the past week and she used it to say the case for an increase in the federal funds rate "has strengthened in recent months", without giving details.

That was followed by a Fischer interview with CNBC in which he said that Yellen's view was consistent with two hikes this year, with the first as soon as September, depending on how economic data plays out.

"Fischer is the second in command for the Fed so you would've thought there's a deliberate message being sent," said Martin Rudings, a senior dealer at Wellington-based OMF.

The market is currently pricing a 42 per cent chance of a September hike and a 64 per cent chance of a move in December but if non-farm payrolls are strong "then September will need to get repriced a little bit I would have thought", he said.

Rudings said over the past month or so there has been a lot of talk about a new peak for the fed funds rate that's a lot lower than previously thought, perhaps averaging around 3 per cent and meaning the central bank has plenty of time to move.

He said the kiwi dollar may trade in a range of US70c to US73c "and should head down toward the bottom of the band" provided the US labour data is as strong as expected.

The US economy probably stacked on 180,000 jobs in August, based on a Reuters forecast.

Ahead of the US data, New Zealand building consents for July are due out tomorrow and the ANZ Business Outlook, a business confidence survey, is due for release on Wednesday.

The kiwi rose to A95.86c from A95.60c on Friday and fell to 4.8302 yuan from 4.8856 yuan. It declined to 64.62 euro cents from 64.87 euro cents and fell to 55.15 British pence from 55.48p.

The kiwi rose to 74 yen from 73.67 yen. New Zealand's two-year swap rate rose 3 basis points to 1.96 per cent and 10-year swaps rose 5 basis points to 2.41 per cent.