"The New Zealand electricity market remains healthy with strong underlying fundamentals and a good balance between supply and demand," it said.
The closure of several industrial facilities over the past 18 months has extended a decade-long trend of falling electricity demand and national consumption dipped in the first half due to wetter and warmer weather conditions, however, "GDP growth and record net migration are positives that will flow through to demand," it said.
Among other elements, the annual guidance assumes 4,250GWh of hydro production, flat operating expenditure on the year and the inclusion of $5m from the divestment of carbon credits.
Mercury Energy chief executive Fraser Whineray said the 2015 closure of the gas-fired Southdown station "substantially reduced" the company's future carbon obligations and it took the opportunity to sell some of its surplus carbon credits in the first half of the year. This generated cash proceeds of $19m due to significantly higher carbon pricing and a gain on sale of $5m. It said the remaining inventory and supply contracts are sufficient to meet future obligations for more than 10 years.
Capital expenditure is expected to be $115m in the full year as a result of its focus on hydro reinvestment and geothermal drilling. The capex program is focused around Whakamaru and Aratiatia hydro stations, will further improve the efficiency and long-term reliability of operations on the Waikato River and sustain performance of geothermal production, it said.
The company also said it is lobbying for the government to shift from the current renewable electricity target to focusing on total renewable energy. "An energy target would force us as a country to give much greater weight to the opportunity to use renewable heat in industrial applications and to electrify transport," it said. Among other things, Mercury said the regulatory environment must be simplified. In particular, distribution pricing needs to be overhauled as a priority to provide appropriate long-term signals for consumers and generators alike and to keep pace with new technologies, it said.
Mercury shares were unchanged at $3.02 in early trading and have gained 19 per cent in the past 12 months.