ANZ Research said next week’s second-quarter statistics are expected to show further softening in the labour market, with unemployment rising from 4.3% to 4.7%, slightly above the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 4.6%.
Wage growth in the private sector labour cost index (including overtime) is expected to be 3.6% year-on-year, against 3.8% in the first quarter, while growth in private sector average hourly earnings (ordinary time) growth is also expected to slow to 3.8%.
“This is the last big piece of data ahead of the August monetary policy statement, where the market is currently pricing more than a 65% chance of a cut [in interest rates]. We think something close to our forecast is unlikely to push the Reserve Bank into action this early,” ANZ said.
“But if recent weakness in forward-looking indicators persists, confirmation from the second quarter data that the labour market is loosening could increase the odds of an October kick-off.”
In the latest NZX statistics, total equity trades fell 19.8% to 3.916m for the six months ending June, and the value traded declined 8.1% to $15.5 billion, with 62.9% on-market. The average on-market trade size was $2463, up 9.9%. Total capital raisings were $6.33b, down 11.5%.
The NZ dollar was trading at US58.9c against the American greenback, having weakened from US61.5c on July 8.
Market leader Fisher and Paykel Healthcare was up 64c or 2.02% to $32.30, and a2 Milk gained 31c or 4.04% to $7.99, having nearly doubled since November last year when it reached $4.04. Still, a2 Milk is some distance from its high of $21.74 set on August 18, 2020.
Mainfreight collected $1.44 or 1.98% to $73.99; Port of Tauranga was up 9c to $5.58; Briscoe Group gained 12c or 2.81% to $4.39; Eroad increased 5c or 3.88% to $1.34; and NZME added 3c or 2.88% to $1.07.
Third Age Health rose 11c or 6.47% to $1.81; Steel & Tube gained 4c or 4.04% to $1.03; Marsden Maritime Holdings increased 9c or 2.69% to $3.44; and 2 Cheap Cars added 2c or 2.35% to 87c.
Among the property companies, Kiwi was up 2.5c or 2.86% to 90c; Argosy added 2c or 1.89% to $1.08; and Asset Plus gained 1c or 4.76% to 22c.
Vector, up 2c to $3.71, has conditionally agreed to sell its liquified petroleum gas business, Ongas, and the 60.25% shareholding in Liquigas Limited for $150m.
Accordant Group was unchanged at 67c after receiving a price inquiry from NZX following the share price rise from 43c on July 10 to 65c on July 29 – an increase of 51.16%. Accordant said it was complying with the continuous disclosure obligations.
ANZ Group was down 60c or 1.86% to $31.60; Gentrack shed 19c or 1.84% to $10.11; Green Cross Health was down 2c or 2.22% to 88c; ikeGPS decreased 3c or 4.05% to 71c; and Rakon declined 2c or 2.33% to 84c.
Fast food operators Restaurant Brands declined 14c or 4.39% to $3.05, and Burger Fuel was down 1.5c or 4.84% to 29.5c.
Santana Minerals decreased 2.5c to $1.39 after reporting high-grade gold deposits from its ongoing resource definition drilling programmes at the Central Otago Bendigo-Ophir project ahead of its pre-feasibility study.
Santana is planning to produce 110,000 ounces a year over 10 years for revenue of $4.4b (at a gold price of $3900/ounce) and a net profit of $2b. Total production cost is estimated at $1392/oz, and $1.7b would stay in New Zealand through tax, royalties and dividends.
Promisia Healthcare, unchanged at 0.001c, has raised $3m under its share purchase plan and placement, and expects to confirm its finance condition for buying two retirement villages in Cromwell.
New Talisman Gold Mines, down 0.001c or 5.26% to 1.8c, raised $1.805m from its rights issue, enabling the company to finalise its processing site and begin bulk sampling on the Mystery Vein at its Karangahake Gorge mine.
