NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Business

Brian Fallow: Wages show symptoms of Covid-19

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·NZ Herald·
10 Feb, 2022 04:00 PM6 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

In a year in which consumer prices overall rose 5.9 per cent, getting no increase in the pay packet is tough. Photo / 123RF

In a year in which consumer prices overall rose 5.9 per cent, getting no increase in the pay packet is tough. Photo / 123RF

Brian Fallow
Opinion by Brian Fallow
Brian Fallow is a former economics editor of The New Zealand Herald
Learn more

OPINION:

However you measure them, wages and salaries have lately been growing more slowly than prices.

But while falling real wages are unpleasant and unfortunate, they are also inevitable.

Covid-19 is — along with the other worse things that it is — a global negative productivity shock. Lockdowns and disrupted supply chains have not been good for productivity.

And just as productivity gains are essential to sustainably lifting real incomes, the converse is also true.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Some must pay the price.

It also inevitable that there will be rough justice in who that is, both between and among the providers of labour and the owners of capital.

So we see widening income inequality in last week's labour market statistics.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Statistics NZ's preferred measure of wage inflation, the labour cost index, records that 38 per cent of salaries and wage rates did not increase at all in 2021.

That is a smaller proportion than usual, reflecting a tight labour market which saw the labour cost index rise 2.6 per cent overall and 2.8 per cent for the private sector, up from 2.4 and 2.5 per cent respectively in the September survey.

But in a year in which consumer prices overall rose 5.9 per cent, getting no increase in the pay packet is tough. And another 13 per cent of pay rates rose by less than 2 per cent.

At the other end of the spectrum, 20 per cent of them increased by more than 5 per cent.

The occupations recording the highest increases were construction trades workers, mobile plant operators, and road and rail drivers.

Overall, and perhaps surprisingly, there was an inverse relationship between skill levels — at least as the statisticians define them, largely in terms of formal qualifications — and the average pay increase last year.

You might say it was a year in which it was better to possess work boots than a bachelor's degree.

Last week's labour market numbers reaffirmed New Zealand's ranking as a country with one of the highest employment rates: 68.8 per cent of the population over 15 is employed.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

When those aged 65 or older are excluded, the "prime age" employment rate, at 79.4 per cent, is the fourth highest in the OECD. It is well above the OECD average of 68 per cent, or 70.5 per cent in the United States, where the prevailing narrative is how tight the labour market is.

Australia's prime age employment rate is a respectable 75.9 per cent, which suggests some risk that the longstanding net loss of people across the ditch will resume when the risk of being stranded there as second-class non-citizens is removed as the border reopens.

A prime age employment rate of nearly 80 per cent is per se a good thing.

But it can also be seen as the flip side of something not so good: capital shallowness.

New Zealand's capital-to-labour ratio — the amount of capital firms have invested per worker — is low by developed country standards and is a major factor in our relatively low labour productivity.

It reflects a tendency of firms, when looking to expand output and when the two are substitutable, to hire rather than invest.

Building workers did best, but almost 40 per cent of workers got no pay rise last year. Photo / Jason Oxenham
Building workers did best, but almost 40 per cent of workers got no pay rise last year. Photo / Jason Oxenham

That may be the rational choice when labour is relatively cheap and easily shed if business takes a turn for the worse, while capital expenditure is a sunk cost.

But it suggests the proposed income insurance scheme unveiled last week, which would widen New Zealand's comparatively low tax wedge on wages, might for that reason encourage some capital deepening and the attendant productivity improvement.

The other most widely watched measure of wage growth is the quarterly employment survey (QES).

It reflects changes in employers' wage bills, with some exceptions, notably agriculture and fisheries.

It is also the source of the measure of wage growth to which NZ Superannuation is indexed — average ordinary time weekly earnings in the last QES before March 1 — which was up 5.6 per cent in the latest survey.

Average ordinary time hourly earnings in the private sector in the December 2021 quarter were up 4.1 per cent on a year earlier. The national average dilutes down to a 3.8 per cent rise when the public sector is added. Either way, it lags behind CPI inflation.

But one firm's employee is other firms' customer.

When that increase in the average wage is compounded by a 4.2 per cent increase in filled jobs and a 1.9 per cent increase in average paid hours per week, the net effect the QES found is that the collective weekly gross earnings of employees were up 10.6 per cent on December 2020.

While that sort of increase might sound good to a business chasing the consumer's dollar, offsetting it in the year ahead will be:

• The squeeze that falling real wages will put on discretionary spending power.
• The hit to the cashflow of households with mortgages as the Reserve Bank's tightening flows through to that majority of home loans which are due for an interest rate reset this year.
• Omicron's effect on consumer behaviour and sentiment, on top of the effects of large numbers of people being off work sick or isolating at the same time.
• And the highly uncertain effects on net migration flows as the border is gingerly reopened.

One person who is making out like a bandit, though, is Finance Minister Grant Robertson, in the sense that five months into the current fiscal year, the PAYE tax take was running 10 per cent higher than in the same five months a year earlier.

Some of that increase would reflect the kicking in of the 39 per cent top tax rate and bracket creep.

But mainly, it reflects the combined effects of employment and wage growth, even if, for so many people, the latter falls short of the rising cost of living.

It is an ill wind that blows the taxman no good.

Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Latest from Business

Premium
Opinion

Sasha Borissenko: Legal insights from the Siouxsie Wiles case

15 Jun 03:00 AM
Premium
Energy

Why energy is set to be a hot topic in next year's election

15 Jun 02:00 AM
Premium
Opinion

The Ex-Files: How to access KiwiSaver funds after separation

15 Jun 12:00 AM

Audi offers a sporty spin on city driving with the A3 Sportback and S3 Sportback

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Premium
Sasha Borissenko: Legal insights from the Siouxsie Wiles case

Sasha Borissenko: Legal insights from the Siouxsie Wiles case

15 Jun 03:00 AM

OPINION: The cost of doubling down.

Premium
Why energy is set to be a hot topic in next year's election

Why energy is set to be a hot topic in next year's election

15 Jun 02:00 AM
Premium
The Ex-Files: How to access KiwiSaver funds after separation

The Ex-Files: How to access KiwiSaver funds after separation

15 Jun 12:00 AM
Premium
Diana Clement: How a mindset shift can unlock financial success

Diana Clement: How a mindset shift can unlock financial success

14 Jun 09:00 PM
Gold demand soars amid global turmoil
sponsored

Gold demand soars amid global turmoil

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP