A missile has detonated in Poland, killing two people. Will this trigger a Nato attack on Russia? Analysts say “it depends”.
“Dear friends, there is no such thing as ‘triggering’ Article 5,” says the former commander of Nato forces in Europe, retired General Ben Hodges. He was referring to a treaty clause that defines any attack on one member as an attack on all.
“It’s not automatic. There is no laser beam that opens a door like at a hotel or store if you walk through it,” he explains. “Article 5 is a political decision. In this case, Article 4 Consultations seem appropriate until we have more facts.”
Article 4 is a Nato treaty provision that requires member countries to consult when “in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any parties is threatened”.
Facts, at the moment, are thin on the ground.
Polish government officials are in crisis talks assessing the circumstances of the death of its citizens a few miles from the Ukraine border.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the explosion an “attack on collective security”. “The Russian Federation takes lives wherever it can reach,” he declared.
“Today, this Russian attack on collective security in the Euro-Atlantic is a significant escalation. People died. My sincere condolences to my Polish brothers and sisters! Ukraine will always be with you. The terror of the Russian Federation must be stopped. Solidarity is our strength!”
The source of the missile or missiles is as yet unconfirmed. The explosions reportedly occurred on an electricity interconnector line linking the European Union with Ukraine. This power line runs close to Ukraine’s Dubrotvirska power plant.
“My sense is this is not an intentional Russian attack,” Hodges added. “Either a malfunction or the results of Ukrainians shooting down a Russian missile. But a clear reminder of Russia’s reckless willingness to shoot too close to Polish/Nato/EU border.”
And, analysts say, even if Article 5 is invoked – it does not mean automatic armed conflict. The statement begins: “an attack on one is an attack on all”. However, it ends by stating that members must “assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith … such actions as it deems necessary”.
Power play
The missile strike, which unconfirmed reports suggest struck a Polish farming hamlet, came amid an all-out Russian barrage against Ukraine’s power generation assets and residential centres.
It was also timed to correspond with President Zelensky’s criticism of the Kremlin at the G20 summit in Indonesia. He also presented a 10-point proposal to begin peace talks.
The Russian missile strike, which began just an hour later, is being interpreted as a “no”, Ukrainian officials say.
“Russia responds to Zelensky’s powerful speech at G20 with a new missile attack,” Andriy Yermak, the chief of Zelensky’s staff, said. “Does anyone seriously think that the Kremlin really wants peace?”
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat said yesterday that the country had experienced an unexpected lull in drone and missile attacks.
“Obviously, the enemy cannot afford to launch massive missile strikes all the time, because it experiences a shortage of these weapons,” he said. “This also applies to Iskanders and Kh-555, Kh-101 missiles, as well as Kalibr” cruise missiles.”
But it became apparent overnight that Moscow was rallying its resources to overwhelm Kyiv’s defences. More than 100 missiles were launched. This was significantly more than the previous record-setting 84-weapon assault in October.
“This is a massive missile strike,” said Ignat. “Critical infrastructure facilities are the first target. But, unfortunately, rockets also hit residential buildings.”
One person was killed when a capital residential block was hit.
But the main impact of the assault will become apparent in the coming weeks. Winter is about to settle in. And that means temperatures are regularly tumbling below freezing.
Fallout threat
Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko has described today’s bombardment as the “most massive shelling” since the war began.
“Today, again, Russia strikes large-scale missile strikes on energy facilities. This is the most massive shelling of the energy system since the beginning of the war,” he posted to Facebook. “This attack can have an impact not only on the energy system of Ukraine but also on the energy systems of some of our neighbours.”
He was referring to the interconnection of Ukraine’s power grid with neighbouring countries. Specifically, he was concerned about the destabilising effects of power plants suddenly being removed from the grid.
Russian missiles hit Polish Przewodow directly at the electricity power line which connects the EU with Ukraine, close to Dobrotvirska power plant in Ukraine, an important energy hub. Map: courtesy of ENTSO-E, the EU organization of electricity network operators. pic.twitter.com/VHNuuyph3A
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) November 15, 2022
The explosions in Poland, however, came adjacent to a primary EU power connector that has helped compensate for the loss of supply from Ukraine’s damaged facilities.
“Any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response,” Nato General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said shortly after the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea last month.
He added that the effects of cyber-attacks and sabotage were sufficient to activate Article 5′s collective defence measures.
That would mean every member of the 30-nation alliance would be required to consider the attack an attack on themselves.
“We will never give up the privilege of defining exactly where the threshold for Article 5 goes. That will be a decision we make as allies taking into account the precise context,” Stoltenberg said.
Article 5 has only ever been activated once before. This was the September 11 terror attacks on the United States in 2001.