Accused cop killer Dezi Freeman has been on the run for almost a month.
It has been four weeks since the Australian alleged double cop killer Dezi Freeman was last seen alive, but that could dramatically change soon, a former detective has predicted.
The sovereign citizen allegedly gunned down two officers and injured a third when they tried to serve a warrant at his property in Porepunkah, northeast of Victoria, in late August.
Freeman, a known survivalist, fled into nearby bush armed with guns and has been on the run since, despite police’s offer of a A$1 million ($1.1m) reward for his arrest.
Close friends have come out since, saying the father-of-three had planned to live remotely and may have stored food, water and other necessities in a secret bush hide-out.
But Dr David Craig, a former Australian Federal Police detective superintendent, said it did not matter how prepared Freeman was as most need resources around the four-week mark.
“There’s a few alternatives: one is that he’s actually deceased, committed suicide in a hard-to-find location,” he told news.com.au.
“Or if he put a lot of thought into this type of thing happening he could last for a while. But he will need to come out and get things regardless of how well he’s prepped.”
Craig said most fugitives, a month into being on the run, will need necessities such as transport and water.
He urged locals in and surrounding Porepunkah to be cautious about leaving their cars or homes unlocked given Freeman is still on the loose.
“If they live in a rural property they need to make sure that their vehicles are all there and not stolen [and] if things are missing like food items out of the fridge. He may need to start resorting to local theft,” the 20-year veteran cop said.
“If he’s been completely hidden, for start, he hasn’t been in the sunshine for weeks. He will be feeling very fatigued and stressed if he’s still alive.
“I think that he will need to emerge in the next few weeks to resupply himself.”
But Dr Craig said that does not take into consideration he could be being helped by a friend or a supporter in the “SovCit” movement.
“It’s very hard then if somebody is harbouring him in a sustainable environment and has not been detected by law enforcement,” he added.
Asked what he believed has happened, the former detective said either Freeman had committed suicide or he was being assisted.
Gordon Dedman, a survival instructor and 30-year veteran in the Australian army, believes it will only be a matter of time before Freeman trips up.
Dedman, who founded Bushcraft Survival Australia, a school dedicated to training traditional and modern outdoor living skills, said many elements are at play in this case.
“We’re dealing with someone who has [allegedly] killed two people so he has a higher motivation to not want to be caught,” he told news.com.au.
He said it will depend on how prepared Freeman was, in particular whether he had a “cache” of supplies and tools hidden in the bush, and pointed to the “rule of 3s”.
The latter is a survival guideline, which varies depending on the situation, is an estimate of how long someone can survive without air, shelter, water and food.
For example, it is three minutes without air, three hours without shelter in harsh conditions, three days without water and three weeks without food.
“Someone with skill and the correct equipment, in my opinion, can stay significantly longer particularly if they’re resupplied,” Dedman said.
“Taking away the hunting element [by police], even without food but water, someone could stay for three months. If you have the right clothing, shelter, warmth, you could stay for several months.”
The bush craftsman, who has worked with the likes of Chris Hemsworth on National Geographic as well as on TV series Alone Australia, suspects Freeman is on the move to evade police.
Dedman agreed with Craig that he could emerge around the four-week mark, but also suggested he could be being helped and won’t need to come out any time soon.
“I’m surprised there hasn’t been some sort of sign of him,” he said.
The survival instructor indicated Freeman might not even be in the area where police are suspecting and was likely on the move constantly to avoid being caught.
“My guess is he’s moving on and he could be somewhere different. If he stayed in one spot he’d be found – and he would know that,” he said.
Social media photos have shown Freeman loved the outdoors and was constantly adventuring in the bush, such as swimming and kayaking.
One picture also showed him holding a snake, a sign that he can deal with potentially dangerous animals in the wild.
The terrain where the sovereign citizen fled into has been described as mountainous and is surrounded by “very thick bush”.
The conditions around this time of the year can get very cold and wet.
Dedman said he has run courses in the town of Wangaratta, close to the Mount Buffalo National Park where Freeman fled into.
“There’s water at this time of the year but the cold is a massive thing. There’s a labyrinth of caves dotted in that area and he might have intricate knowledge police don’t,” he said.
“(But) everyone usually makes a mistake and they’ll be caught eventually.”
Craig has insisted Freeman will one day be caught.
He likened the manhunt to the almost four-year search for Tom Phillips, who snatched his three young kids and fled into the New Zealand wilderness.
The family had been spotted multiple times by locals throughout their time on the run.
But Phillips was eventually captured on CCTV cameras for the first time in late August this year as he broke into the same store he tried to rob in 2023.
Then last week a call came in about an armed robbery at a business in the Waikato region, south of Auckland, with police suspecting it was Phillips.
It ended in a dramatic shootout on the side of a road, leaving the father-of-three dead and an officer seriously injured.
Craig – who was called in to provide expert advice in the New Zealand case, said Phillips was also fairly well-prepared but eventually had to come out of hiding.
“He remained hidden and New Zealand, the environment was more hospitable than where they are (in Porepunkah) at the moment,” he told news.com.au.
“I mean it’s a really tough environment but it’s not as cold and wet.”
“I’m confident he was getting some help. But he wasn’t getting enough help because that’s why he started to do robberies of houses and businesses and that’s what ultimately Dezi Freeman will end up doing.”
Hundreds of officers involved in the search have been forced to navigate rough terrain and must take time to scour areas of interest carefully.
Craig compared the manhunt to what the Australian military did in Afghanistan where al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorists hid in caves.
Some of the methods to hunt down Freeman that cops have used include canine dogs and technical devices to identify heat signatures or any “vibrations”.
“It is technical because it’s dangerous,” the former cop, who had a 12-month stint in the Middle East, said.
“I know exactly what they’re doing and the problems they face because this person could well be wanting to end things in a violent way so it’s very technical for the police.
“You can’t send in people without enough resources, without risk assessments. You’ve got to weigh up the credibility of information coming in from the public.”
Craig said it was unlikely the person harbouring Freeman would turn him into the police even with a A$1m offer, but suggested someone that knew the associate could.
“I know the result isn’t there but I actually think it was a very good job (response by Victoria Police),” he said.
“One of my criticisms of the Tom Phillips case is they didn’t bring in the military quick enough because the military have got technology and skills predominantly from Afghanistan that can be used very, very well,” he said.
“I can’t from the information I have, I can’t see I would’ve done anything different (in the Freeman hunt).”
Dedman said the military skill of tracking should have been used early in the manhunt.
It is a method used to assess and interpret any signs left over from animals or humans in a landscape, such as footprints, scents and any damaged to flora.
But the area has already been “disturbed” by the hundreds of resources involved in the manhunt, making it difficult to read.
News.com.au reached out to Victoria Police this week about the ongoing search, which still involves aerial assets and roadblocks, the amount of resources that remain on scene.
A spokeswoman said the number of officers will “fluctuate” each day “depending on the investigation and our operational need”.
“Suffice to say the ongoing investigation into the murder of our two officers, and serious injury to a third, remains our highest priority,” she said.
“The local community and visitors to the area will continue to see police and an increased presence in and around Porepunkah, Bright and the greater Alpine area.”
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