What is next for nuclear-armed India and Pakistan?

• India launched air strikes on nine sites in Pakistan, claiming “justice had been done” after a massacre in Kashmir.
• Delhi emphasised the strikes were “focused, measured and non-escalatory,” avoiding Pakistani military facilities.
• Tensions rise as both nations, nuclear-armed, walk a tightrope between escalation and restraint.

Shortly after launching military strikes on nine sites in Pakistan, India declared that “justice had been done”.

It had chosen revenge after a massacre of Indian tourists in Kashmir in April by terrorists for which it blamed Islamabad.

As the world anxiously watches the clashes, the question remains, how far this might escalation go and might this be war between two nuclear armed adversaries?

For all the martial messaging from Delhi, careful language has pointed not to open runaway conflict, but to a history of tit-for-tat action and managed confrontations.

India stressed that “no Pakistani military facilities have been targeted” and that it had instead “demonstrated considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution”.

Delhi immediately told the world, and Islamabad, that its strikes had been “focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature”.

Worried diplomats will hope that a similar flare-up six years ago may form the template for how the current tension may be dissipated.

In early 2019, the Pulwama bombing killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel. Delhi responded with air strikes against what it said was a terrorist training camp in Balakot, a claim rejected by Islamabad, which said it was uninhabited forest.

The following day Pakistan launched a retaliatory raid and an Indian air force pilot was shot down in a dogfight and taken prisoner.

Despite the escalation, the enemies were able to step back from the brink. Each one claimed victory and felt able to tell its population that honour had been satisfied.

But India has now taken its retaliation and all eyes will be on Pakistan to see how its military reacts.

Once again, the region finds itself walking a difficult tightrope between escalation and restraint.

After the strikes on Tuesday night, the Pakistani Prime Minister declared India’s attack to be an “act of war” and said any military response is justified.

Both sides have the weaponry to inflict horrendous bloodshed on the other.

The question now is whether India just wants to prove a point and whether Pakistan can keep extremists in line.

- Daily Telegraph UK