The stakes
This shutdown isn’t your garden-variety gridlock – it’s already the second-longest in history, and neither side looks close to backing down.
It is the first significant shutdown driven by Democrats, and only the second time the Government has paused over demands to spend rather than save.
Democrats want to extend subsidies for health insurance premiums that help millions afford coverage. Republicans say reopen the government first, then maybe we’ll talk.
But it’s the Republicans who control the White House, House, and Senate. So when the lights go out, Democrats say their opponents cannot offload the blame.
Democrats’ play: Keep it simple
Democrats are betting on clarity - Republicans are in charge and letting the Government stall while healthcare costs spiral.
Ashley Kirzinger, from health research group KFF, says the message that “healthcare is at risk” is a widely understood pitch that lands.
“What we found is 78% of the public – including majorities of Democrats, independents, Republicans and [Trump] supporters – all think Congress should extend the premium tax credits beyond 2025,” she told NPR.
Democrats also feel comfortable taking the fight to Republicans on a “tent pole issue” central to their brand, says American University politics professor Matthew Foster.
Republicans move from red meat to procedure
Republicans – from Trump to Vice-President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson – kicked off the shutdown with a blunt message: “Democrats want to fund free healthcare for illegal immigrants”.
The claim didn’t hold up, as undocumented immigrants are barred from the benefits Democrats are pushing, and polling on its effectiveness is threadbare.
Republicans soon pivoted to process.
They argue they passed a “clean CR” – a temporary funding Bill – and blame the gridlock on Democrats wielding the “filibuster”, the 60-vote threshold required to get legislation through the 100-member Senate.
Critics say voters don’t care about procedural chess, and trying to explain the filibuster is like reading the fine print on a casino voucher.
The voters that matter “aren’t paying close enough attention to know this nuance”, Foster says.
Who’s holding the better cards?
Democrats are playing the emotional hand – healthcare, working families, real-world consequences.
Republicans lean on process and power plays.
Trump’s bravado fires up the base but analysts say he risks alienating voters who just want their pay and prescriptions.
“Polls show that people aren’t necessarily blaming him yet, but as the economy turns, as other things do, that could shift drastically,” Foster says.
In the most recent polling, Reuters/Ipsos found 50% blame Republicans, 43% Democrats. Hart Research showed 52% blame Trump and Republicans, while 41% point the finger at Democrats.
Trump’s approval in the Ipsos poll ticked up over the shutdown, from 40 to 42%.
Playing the long game
Democrats are looking past the gridlock and elevating healthcare as a defining issue for 2026 Midterms. As premiums rise and frustration builds, they hope voters connect the dots: Republican control equals shutdown pain.
Republicans see leverage – a chance to reshape Government and flex muscle. The longer it drags on, analysts say, the more the shutdown looks like a risky bet.
“Both sides are blaming the other for breaking America,” said Peter Loge, a professor of political communication at George Washington University.
“And if they’re not careful, both sides will be right.”
-Agence France-Presse
