US president Donald Trump will lose election by landslide, new model predicts

The study predicts Donald Trump will lose in a landslide. Photo / AP

The United States economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to his biggest weakness, a new study claims.

The economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released by Oxford Economics has predicted.

The study predicted Trump would win just 35 per cent of the popular vote, compared to a previous pre-coronavirus prediction that picked the president to win 55 per cent of the vote.

The poor economic backdrop means our state-based & national election models both suggest President Trump will lose the popular vote. But while economic factors point to a clear Democrat win, voter turnout and the evolution of the pandemic could be crucial https://t.co/0OhzZgSOtj pic.twitter.com/H64pV4ymfL

— Oxford Economics (@OxfordEconomics) May 20, 2020

In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote, gaining 46.2 per cent to Hillary Clinton's 48.1 per cent, but secured victory by taking swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Florida.

The Oxford Economics model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts Trump will lose in a landslide. It would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.

"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favour Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."

The model has proven accurate in its predictions every year since 1948, except for 1968 and 1976, and works off the assumption that the US economy will not have bounced back from the pandemic by this autumn, with unemployment rates above 13 per cent, and household incomes 6 per cent lower.

"The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression," the report said.

"An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6 per cent below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."

Depressing!

The US #industrial production 11.2% plunge in April was the worst on record with data going back over a century !

That means the plunge in industrial activity was worst than in any month during the Great Depression ! pic.twitter.com/XpSmb9ykQE

— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) May 15, 2020

Trump trailed Biden 38 per cent to 46 per cent among registered voters in the latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday (US time).

US #retail sales -16.4% in April: record decline after downwardly revised 8.3% plunge in Mar

Declines across all categories ex online:
- Clothing -78.8%
- Electronics -60.6%
- Furniture -58.7%
- Sports -38%
- Restaurants/bars -29.5%
- Gasoline -28.8%
- Food -13.1%
- Online +8.4% pic.twitter.com/7CU0WzT4tN

— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) May 15, 2020