US election 2020 polls: Landslide win predicted for Joe Biden

If you still believe in the accuracy of polling, after everything that's happened over the past four years, things only appear to be getting worse for Donald Trump.

Overnight, a new poll from The New York Times predicted the Republican would lose in four key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and, by a wide margin, in Wisconsin.

If Joe Biden can hold onto his apparent lead in three of these four states, it would almost certainly be enough to win.

According to the Times, Trump now needs a major upset to secure reelection.

But what happens if the polls are wrong – like they were in 2016?

Well, let's take a look at some of the scenarios based on polling errors.

This first map is taking the polling average in each state at face value. If the polls are completely accurate, this is what will happen.

Bear in mind that the goal for each candidate is to reach 270 electoral votes. Win a state, and they get its entire haul.

This map, based on current polls, shows Biden with a lead of 351 electoral votes to Trump's 187. Source / Supplied

It's a Democratic landslide. But are the polls going to get everything right? No, of course not.

This second map shows what will happen if the polls at state level are as wrong this time as they were in 2016.

Say the polls in Pennsylvania, for example, are underestimating Donald Trump's share of the vote by 5 per cent, just like they did in 2016. What does the electoral map look like then?

This map shows Biden with a lead of 335 electoral votes to Trump's 203. Source / Supplied

There's actually not much difference. Trump flips North Carolina and Maine's second congressional district.

This scenario leaves Joe Biden ahead by less than 1 per cent in both Florida and Georgia. Out of curiosity, let's give both of those states to Trump. He still loses.

This map shows Biden with a lead of 290 electoral votes to Trump's 248. Source / Supplied

Yes, the polls might be wrong again, and maybe by a significant margin. But it's not enough for them to be as far off the mark as they were in 2016. Trump needs the error to be significantly worse this time.