Thailand's PM: Billionaire of the people

By TIM WATKIN Herald feature writer

As Thaksin Shinawatra campaigned through the provinces of Thailand late last year, party aides warming up the crowds would say, "Dr Thaksin was the first Thai to launch a satellite into space. Brothers and sisters, think of what he can do for you."

Thais did think about it, found they liked the idea of the 51-year-old telecommunications billionaire as Prime Minister and, in this month's election, gave his party the first parliamentary majority in Thai history.

Their thinking was simple: If he can make himself so wealthy, then he can surely make the country wealthy as well.

But Thaksin's success, in business and now in politics, is clouded by a background of privilege, populism and, most of all, indictment by the National Counter Corruption Commission for failing to declare some of his wealth during a previous ministerial term.

This year's general election was the first under an MMP system of 400 constituency and 100 list seats and the first regulated by a new corruption-busting constitution. Despite this, the level of corruption was such that the Election Commission gave eight candidates a red card (meaning they are disqualified from politics for five years), and another 54 a yellow card (which means a new poll but allows the carded candidate to stand again).

Fresh elections were held last Monday in 62 of the 400 constituency seats, but the Election Commission says election fraud in the re-runs was the worst ever and still further elections may be required.

While the charges - including vote-buying - are serious, they only delay what was already decided in the election on January 6: Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party, with at least 224 seats, will form the core of a new coalition Government.

Thaksin was born in a two-storey wooden house in front of the market in the northern city of Chiang Mai in 1949, the son of a prominent local family. He became a policeman before receiving a Government scholarship to do postgraduate study in the US and, in 1982, starting a computer dealership with his wife Potjaman Shinawatra. That dealership has grown into Shin Corp, an empire that includes the country's largest mobile phone operator and satellite communications and holds assets of about 25 billion baht ($1.34 billion), making Thaksin Thailand's richest person.

Thaksin is using that business success to win over the markets and votes alike, saying he will be a strong, decisive leader.

He has got a load of advisers and people in from other parties, but he is very much the CEO of Thai Rak Thai, says Julian Gearing, Bangkok bureau chief for Asiaweek magazine. "It's very much a Thaksin-led operation."

Contrary to their traditional polite demeanour, he adds, Thais tend to go for the brash, loud-mouthed politicians. They're impressed by that kind of thing.

Yes, he has been commercially successful, says Mike Stead, a Bangkok-based freelance business journalist, but it is only because he got these lucrative concessions at a time when the Thai Government was rather wet behind the ears about mobile phones and because he had connections.

Through such cronyism he won a 20-year monopoly concession to operate a mobile phone service from the Telephone Authority of Thailand in 1990, and numerous computer contracts with state-owned enterprises.

He has had three previous stints in Government, first as a non-elected Foreign Minister and twice as Deputy Prime Minister. He has had mixed results, Gearing says. Only a C grade.

When he launched his Thai Rak Thai party just two years ago, he called it the new, clean face of Thai politics, Gearing says. "But it has got a lot murkier. He has brought in some very old-style politicians and in election advertising he has spent five times as much as anyone else over a two-year period."

Five of the eight candidates red-carded and 27 of the 54 yellow-carded were from Thai Rak Thai, while an Australian TV crew reported that party workers were handing out 100-baht notes in northern villages.

Hanging over Thaksin's victory is his indictment by the Counter Corruption Commission over allegations that he failed to declare his assets during his last stint as Deputy PM. The holdings under investigation are worth 600 million baht and include a golf course that was allegedly transferred to his maid, driver and other close employees.

While the Election Commission wants the case completed in six months, Thaksin says it may take two years to try.

Either way, Thailand has the embarrassing prospect of a PM going along to the Constitutional Court to face trial, says Gearing.

"I would have thought that if the Constitutional Court was doing its job, there's no way he can't be found guilty and then kicked out."

Concern for the instability that would bring has prompted newspapers to ask him to stand aside.

Drawing strength from his landslide victory, Thaksin is refusing to budge. His attitude, like his politics, is unashamedly populist.

Over the coming months, Thaksin must face the indictment investigation, while forming a coalition, and somehow meeting the high expectations that both the country's elite and the ordinary Thai voter have placed on him. By comparison, launching a satellite into space sounds easy.

* Tim Watkin travelled to Thailand courtesy of the Asia2000 Foundation.