Tense times ahead for Italy

Silvio Berlusconi (left) and Matteo Salvini are expected to form a coalition. Photo / AP

Italians vote in parliamentary elections tomorrow after a campaign season when emotions were running high. But weeks, even months, of more political tension are likely.

There is likely to be a lot of backroom party manoeuvring with a strong possibility of producing a crisis-prone, short-lived government with limited chances of making much headway on Italy's economic and social issues.

Some fear an even more dismal outcome.

The vote "will bring Italy in line with the worst tendencies in contemporary European politics", predicted Cornell University sociology professor Mabel Berezin, who studies populism and fascism in Europe. In written comments this week, she referred to a rise in xenophobia and nationalism in parts of central and eastern Europe.

Berezin noted in a follow-up phone interview that the main contenders in Italy's election include parties which have supported anti-European, anti-immigration and populist positions.

The arrival of hundreds of thousands of migrants in recent years, many fleeing poverty in Africa, coupled with Italy's own slow economic recovery, make for a volatile situation, Berezin said.

What's more, Italy is feeling the effects of its "legacy of fascism", which includes small political parties with neo-fascist roots in the decades following the demise of Benito Mussolini's dictatorship in World War II, the professor added.

The extreme far-right Forza Nuova, whose leader unabashedly describes himself as fascist, is among the smaller parties running candidates.

If opinion polls prove accurate, voters won't reward any one party or coalition with enough votes to yield the parliamentary majority needed to sustain a viable government.

Italian law forbids publishing opinion poll results in the last 15 days before an election. Earlier polls point to a hung legislature, split into three political blocs, each purportedly distrustful of allying with opponents in any government coalition of convenience.

Leading in opinion polls has been the populist 5-Star Movement. But it says it is not a political party so its candidate for premier, Luigi Di Maio, nixes any entering into a post-election coalition government with established parties.

If anyone stands a chance of winning an absolute majority, analysts concur, it's the campaign coalition anchored by the centre-right Forza Italia Party of former Premier Silvio Berlusconi, who because of a tax fraud conviction can't hold public office, and the right-wing, virulently anti-migrant League. Based in the more affluent north, the League is led by Matteo Salvini, who hopes his party will outdraw Forza and position him for the premiership. A smaller campaign partner is Brothers of Italy, a party with neo-fascist roots. Despite its name, it boasts the only female candidate for premier, Giorgia Meloni.

- AP