Starting gun fired in Republican race to replace Bush

WASHINGTON - It's been less than 18 months since the last Presidential election, and the next one is still more than two and a half years away.

But that didn't stop Republicans scared stiff by George Bush's wretched second term performance from holding a first beauty contest this weekend for who should succeed him.

The occasion was the party's bi-annual Southern Leadership Conference, held in Memphis, Tennessee.

Normally such gatherings are a relaxed opportunity for regional notables to catch up with old friends and ponder the political runes.

This one however was different - both an anxious stocktaking ahead of this November's mid-term elections at which on current trends the party could lose the Senate or House (and conceivably both), and an early exhibition canter for many obvious contenders for the wide-open Republican nomination in 2008.

For what it was worth, a straw poll of attendees organised by the Hotline political newsletter was won (not surprisingly) by the home state senator Bill Frist, who steps down as majority leader in January ahead of an almost certain White House run.

Mr Frist won 37 per cent of the 1,427 votes cast.

More intriguing perhaps however was the second place finish of Mitt Romney, governor of Massachusetts, ahead of George Allen, Virginia's affable junior senator and a widely fancied dark horse for 2008.

John McCain, the Arizona Republican, neatly sidestepped what would have been certain defeat by urging his supporters to vote for Mr Bush - arguing that most important for the party was to unite behind Mr Bush to make a success of his remaining time in the White House, rather than abandon him to bolster their chances of survival this autumn.

But that is surely wishful thinking.

After years of subservience to the White House, Congressional Republicans are increasingly going their own way, as testified by last week's unprecedented rebellion over the Dubai ports deal.

One reason is resentment over the perceived disdainful treatment of Congress by the Bush administration.

More important however is the string of political miscues, culminating in the ports debacle, that has driven the President's approval ratings to new lows.

In Memphis, in public as well as in private, leading Republicans took issue with Mr Bush.

Mr Romney for example earned ringing applause for his criticism of runaway public spending and massive budget deficits, while Mr Allen demanded tough immigration controls, in contrast to the effective amnesty for many illegal immigrants proposed by the President.

Others urged Mr Bush to shake up his White House staff, much as Ronald Reagan rescued his second term after the disaster of the Iran-Contra scandal.

"There is some question whether those around [Mr Bush] have served him well," said Norm Coleman, Republican senator from Minnesota.

Especial targets for criticism were Andrew Card, White House chief of staff since 2001, and Karl Rove, Mr Bush's top political adviser and architect of his two winning Presidential campaigns.

Many believe Mr Rove has been distracted by his continuing entanglement in the CIA leak affair.

Underlying everything however is Iraq.

At Saturday evening's annual Gridiron dinner - an event that passes for Washington letting its hair down when reporters and politicians mingle amid jokes and spoofs - the President tried to make light of the difficulties of his administration.

"Dick, I've got an approval rating of 38 per cent, and you shoot the only trial lawyer in the country who likes me," he said of vice-President Cheney's quail hunting mishap last month.

"There are all these conspiracy theories that Dick runs the country, or that Karl runs the country.

Why aren't there conspiracy theories that I run the country?"

- INDEPENDENT