Two Russian missiles have reportedly landed in Poland, killing two people. Photo / @visegrad24, Twitter
US President Joe Biden convened an “emergency” meeting of the G7 and Nato leaders in Indonesia this morning for consultations after Nato-ally Poland said a “Russian-made” missile killed two people in the eastern part of its country near the Ukraine border.
Biden, who was awakened overnight by staff with the news of the missile explosion while in Indonesia for the Group of 20 summit, called Polish President Andrzej Duda early Wednesday to express his “deep condolences” for the loss of life. Biden promised on Twitter “full U.S support for and assistance with Poland’s investigation,” and “reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Nato.”
Meeting at a large round table in a ballroom in his hotel, the US president hosted the leaders of the G7, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the European Union, along with the president of the European Council and the prime ministers of Nato allies Spain and the Netherlands.
Biden said that it was “unlikely” that a missile that killed two in Poland was fired from Russia, but pledged support for Poland’s investigation into what it had called a “Russian-made” missile.
Acting New Zealand Prime Minister Grant Robertson on Wednesday afternoon said the news from Poland was “deeply concerning”.
A statement from the Polish Foreign Ministry identified the missile as being made in Russia. But Poland’s president, Duda, was more cautious about its origin, saying that officials did not know for sure who fired it or where it was made. He said it was “most probably” Russian-made, but that is being still verified.
If confirmed, it would be the first time since the invasion of Ukraine that a Russian weapon came down on a Nato country.
The foundation of the Nato alliance is the principle that an attack against one member is an attack on them all.
Biden spoke to journalists today after he convened the meeting of the G7 and Nato leaders.
“There is preliminary information that contests that,” Biden told reporters when asked if the missile had been fired from Russia. “It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”
Biden said that he briefed the allies on his conversations with Duda and Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and that there was “total unanimity among the folks at the table” to support Poland’s investigation into the attack.
“I’m going to make sure we figure out exactly what happened,” Biden said. “Then we’re going to figure out our next step.”
Poland said that a Russian-made missile fell in the eastern part of the country, killing two people in a blast that marked the first time in the war with Ukraine that Russian weapons came down on a Nato country.
Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy decried the strike as “a very significant escalation” of the war.
The Polish government said in a statement that Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau summoned the Russian ambassador and “demanded immediate detailed explanations.”
Polish government spokesman Piotr Muller said some military units were put on alert while officials sought details.
The Russian Defense Ministry denied being behind “any strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border” and said in a statement that photos of purported damage “have nothing to do” with Russian weapons.
US President Joe Biden said his administration had offered his “full support for Poland’s investigation of the explosion”.
The tragedy occurred as Russia bombarded Ukraine with more than 100 rockets yesterday in a fresh attack.
I spoke with President Andrzej Duda of Poland to express my deep condolences for the loss of life in Eastern Poland and offer our full support for Poland's investigation of the explosion.
— President Biden (@POTUS) November 16, 2022
We will remain in close touch to determine appropriate next steps as it proceeds. pic.twitter.com/m6OSwcHKtD
According to AP, two of those rockets instead landed in a farm near the town of Przewodow, north of Lviv, which is Ukraine’s most western city and likely the intended target – but so far, Russia has denied it was behind the explosion on Polish soil.
The news was initially announced by an unnamed, senior US intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the volatility of the unfolding situation.
Muller confirmed the nation was raising readiness for military combat units in response, and that Poland was also looking into whether it will activate Nato article four, a consultation process where individual members can bring a certain issue before the organisation for discussion.
“The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened,” article four states.
However, Muller stopped short of claiming Russia was behind the incident, saying only that it was a “serious” situation and that “there was an explosion in eastern Poland”, which killed two people.
Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg, who has already spoken with Polish President Andrzej Duda, has also issued a cautious response.
“I offered my condolences for the loss of life. Nato is monitoring the situation and Allies are closely consulting. Important that all facts are established,” he said on Twitter.
It comes as experts have come forward to claim it was too early to say who fired the missiles, given both Russia and Ukraine could have been to blame.
“Who fired the missile is unclear,” the BBC quoted J Andrés Gannon, a security expert at the US Council on Foreign Relations, as saying.
He added that the missile may have been from an S-300 system.
“We know Russia has been using the S-300 for ground attacks even though it’s an air defence system, but Ukraine also uses them for air defence against cruise missiles.”
Grain dryers were hit by the missiles earlier this morning Australian time, with emergency services immediately racing to the scene and leaving Polish Armed Forces on “high alert”, with military planes hastily assembled in response.
Polish government spokesman Piotr Müller earlier confirmed Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki had gathered the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defence Affairs “as a matter of urgency” in the wake of the attack.
Another Polish government spokesperson also told CNN the top-level meeting had been called over the “emergency situation”, but declined to provide further details as an investigation gets under way. AP also reported a Polish government spokesman as saying the nation was in the midst of a “crisis situation”.
Two Russian rockets - accidentally or not - landed in Poland. Reported that two people might died.
— katerina sergatskova (@KSergatskova) November 15, 2022
So, when someone says that it is a war in Ukraine, it is literally incorrect. Russia’s target is Europe.
Dear Poland, stay strong. pic.twitter.com/vdx6vEtoZO
The situation has caused widespread panic and speculation regarding possible retaliation, given Poland is a member of Nato.
According to Nato’s article five provisions, an attack against one Nato member is considered an attack against all allies, and can trigger a co-ordinated response from all states.
It is also understood that nearby Moldova was also impacted by the barrage of Russian missiles, with huge power outages hitting the nation after a major power line was destroyed.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also spoken out in the aftermath of the Russian bombardment, revealing most rockets had targeted the country’s “energy infrastructure”.
“We’re working, will restore everything. We will survive everything,” he said.
So far, global reactions to the strike have been limited, although CNN reports that US Defence Department Press Secretary brigadier general Pat Ryder said the US was “aware of the press reports alleging that two Russian missiles have struck a location inside Poland near the Ukraine border”, and the department insisted the US “will defend every inch of Nato territory”.
Nearby Estonia, which was formerly part of the Soviet Union and which has a strained relationship with Russia, has publicly expressed support for Poland.
“Latest news from Poland is most concerning. We are consulting closely with Poland and other Allies. Estonia is ready to defend every inch of Nato territory,” the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweeted.
“We’re in full solidarity with our close ally Poland.”
Other Baltic nations have also shared similar sentiments. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda tweeted that “Lithuania stands in strong solidarity with Poland” and that “every inch of Nato territory must be defended!”
Alexander Vindman, a retired US Army lieutenant colonel who was the director for European Affairs for the United States National Security and who has spoken extensively about the Ukraine invasion, also weighed into the “terrible development”.
He said the strike against Poland revealed a great deal about the “trajectory of Russia’s war”. “For those that have heard me speak on it, Russian strikes on Nato were an inevitability, in a long war scenario,” he tweeted.
“This incident may be an accidental strike. However, it is just as likely that Russia is signalling the West that the war can spillover to Nato, thus the US should limit military support to Ukraine and coerce Ukraine to negotiate. This incident is important from another perspective.
“There is a logic to escalation. Analysts considering the possibilities of war, WMD use, etc. (still many months from this point) would mark this incident as key I & W (indication and warning) that the West is headed towards a military confrontation with Russia.
“Recommendation: help Ukraine achieve military victories & compel Russia to negotiate, soonest, before this conflict hits more milestones & locks Nato & Russia into war. War remains an extreme possibility, but we continue to march in that direction the longer the war continues.”
Russia’s Defence Ministry has so far denied that the rockets were Russian in origin.
“Information provided in the Polish media and by officials about the alleged fall of ‘Russian’ missiles in the area of Przewodów is a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation,” the Russian Defence Ministry said on its Telegram channel.
“No strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border were made by Russian means of destruction,” the defence ministry also said in a statement, adding that debris at the scene “has nothing to do with Russian weapons”.
Acting Prime Minister Grant Robertson on Wednesday afternoon said the news from Poland was “deeply concerning”.
“This illegal invasion that Russia has undertaken in Ukraine has serious consequences,” Robertson said.
”This is deeply concerning. Obviously, we’ve seen attacks on civilian targets within Ukraine. We don’t know the full circumstances here but we obviously have innocent people in Poland who have now been affected by Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
“We have to believe in the rule of law and the international rule of law and sovereign countries should not be invaded in the way they have been,” Robertson said.
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta said New Zealand was waiting on the outcome of Nato meetings before deciding on the next course of action.
”What is important at the moment is we assess the facts of the situation, sadly there has been a loss of life. My understanding is Nato is assessing the facts of the situation, upon receiving a report from that assessment, New Zealand will make a determination,” Mahuta said.
When asked if New Zealand had any defence force personnel in Poland, Mahuta said there were “people in the region”.
New Zealand has an embassy in Warsaw, about 300km away from Przewodów, where the missile impact occurred.
When asked if the situation in Poland had changed the Government’s stance about potentially expelling the Russian ambassador, Mahuta said “actually, it is still an important consideration but it is not the most important act that we can take”.
”When we receive the report for consideration of the facts from Nato we will make another set of decisions,” she said.
More than 50 rescuers were dispatched, with plans to deploy a helicopter.