Russian President Vladimir Putin believed an invasion of Ukraine would fracture Europe. Photo / Getty
ANALYSIS:
Russia has turned off the gas. It claims it's because the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline needs repairs. But it's a sure sign Europe's energy crisis nightmare is becoming a reality.
German authorities are afraid Russia will attempt to destabilise Europe by not restarting gas flows after a scheduled 10-day maintenance period.
Nord Stream is a major artery for delivering Russian gas to Germany. Typically, it accounts for about 35 per cent of the country's supply. Last month, Moscow-based energy company Gazprom throttled flows by 60 per cent.
On Monday, those flows ceased.
A gas turbine sent to Canada for repairs is at the heart of a dispute. Moscow claims its return has been delayed due to international sanctions. Ottawa says otherwise.
Ukraine, for its part, insists the critical piece of Russian infrastructure must not be returned as it represents a significant source of income for the authoritarian state.
Russia's gas is a powerful political and economic weapon in the hands of President Vladimir Putin. And he's keen to keep Europe on edge.
"Everything is possible. Everything can happen," German Energy Minister Robert Habeck told local media on the weekend.
"It could be that the gas flows again, maybe more than before. It can also be the case that nothing comes."
Europe is already showing signs of stress.
Spiralling energy costs have triggered inflation, causing living costs to soar and struggling companies to close. Some countries are at risk of "very, very strong conflict and strife because there is no energy," Vice President of the European Commission Frans Timmermans told local media.
"Putin is using all the means he has to create strife in our societies, so we have to brace ourselves for a very difficult period."
Russian energy giant Gazprom says it remains uncertain if a "crucial" component of the Nord Stream gas pipeline would be restored to service.
"Gazprom does not have a single document to allow Siemens to take out of Canada the gas turbine engine currently being repaired there," a company statement reads.
"In these circumstances, it is not possible to draw an objective conclusion about the development of the situation and ensuring the safe operation of the Portovaya station – a critical facility for the Nord Stream gas pipeline."
That's despite assurances from Canada that the turbine would be delivered to Germany.
But Germany has expressed fears its return will not solve the crisis.
"Based on the pattern we've seen, it would not be very surprising now if some small, technical detail is found, and then they could say 'now we can't turn it on anymore,'" warns Habeck.
And Kyiv is not happy.
Ukraine has appealed for it to be detained. President Volodymyr Zelensky has called its return "unacceptable" as that would undermine the resolve of other nations to continue enforcing strict sanctions against Moscow.
Europe, however, is trapped between a winter crisis and a political compromise.
"I agree with him on many things, but not on this one," says Slovenia's Prime Minister Robert Golob.
"By weakening Europe at its heart in Germany, at its industrial base – it doesn't help Ukraine."
The Kremlin's reputation for weaponising its energy exports is stoking fears Europe is headed for a winter crisis.
Many nations use gas flows through the northern hemisphere's summer months to refill local gas storage facilities. These hedge against high residential usage triggered by intense winter cold snaps.
But not enough gas has been flowing to build up this buffer.
Gazprom blamed delays in the return of its turbine for causing it to cut flows last month drastically. And the consequences of Moscow refusing to reboot supplies after the 10-day shutdown would be dire.
"Germany has become too dependent on Russia," admits Habeck.
"Winter will be critical, and we must prepare as well as possible."
But the opportunity to do so depends entirely on Moscow turning the taps back on.
"If we no longer receive Russian gas … current stocks will only last for one or two months," adds Germany's energy regulator head Klaus Muller.
Unrest is brewing, with strikes and demonstrations beginning to appear across the continent. Norway – the second biggest supplier of natural gas for Europe – is experiencing strikes in its fossil fuel industries as workers protest spiralling costs.
"Europe faces a winter of discontent," RBC Capital Markets managing director Helima Croft told Foreign Policy.
"Rationing, industrial shut-ins – all of that is looming. The worst-case scenario is people having to choose between eating and heating come winter."
President Putin thought his invasion of Ukraine would set European nations arguing among themselves. Instead, they quickly unified behind unprecedented sanctions and condemnation. Finland and Sweden promptly moved to join Nato – strengthening the alliance in the exact opposite of Putin's objectives.
His artificial energy crisis could produce a similar strategic backfire.
Europe is now keenly aware of its dependence on Russian fossil fuels.
But some of Europe's decommissioned coal power plants are still in an operational state. Last month, Austria, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands announced they would restart their old facilities.
The United States has attempted to take up some slack by shipping more gas to Europe by sea. Germany hopes two new floating LNG facilities will add much-needed port capacity by the end of the year.
But the European Union is finding the sovereignty offered by renewable energy to be appealing after long decades of fossil-fuel blackmail.
"If we really want to stop long-term making Putin very rich, we have to invest in renewables, and we need to do it quickly," says Timmermans.
"If you really want to make sure that you can provide stable, affordable energy to your citizens, renewables are the answer."
Slovenia's Prime Minister Golob agrees. This week he advocated expanding a renewable electricity network across Europe.
"In this way, we can connect the wind in the north with the sun in the south, and we can make a very strong and stable system, a unified European system," he told reporters.