US President Donald Trump claimed to have halted Houthi attacks, but they have resumed, sinking two vessels. Photo / Getty Images
A little over two months ago, Donald Trump was emphatic in claiming to have halted Houthi militants’ attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
The United States President said the militants had agreed to a ceasefire after a campaign of airstrikes which he said had bombed the Iranian-backed group into surrender.
“[The Houthis] just don’t want to fight, and we will honour that and we will stop the bombings, and they have capitulated,” he said on May 6. “They say they will not be blowing up ships any more.”
Despite Trump’s confidence, this week the Houthis have sunk two vessels in quick succession on the critical shipping route and shattered months of relative calm off Yemen’s coast.
The sinking of Magic Seas, a Liberian-flagged and Greek-operated vessel, was followed by a two-day assault on another Greek bulk carrier, the Eternity C, which sank yesterday NZT.
The attacks – broadcast to the world in slick Hollywood-style videos – have once again led to traffic dropping and insurance costs surging in one of the world’s main marine arteries.
Between November 2023 and December 2024, the Houthis targeted more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two and killing four sailors. But until this week, their most recent attack had been seven months ago.
Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the movement’s leader, has vowed to continue attacking Israel-bound ships.
The Houthi resurgence has taken some nations by surprise, especially after biggest backer Iran was hit first by Israel and then by US B2 bombers.
But through careful alliance building, ruthless extortion rackets and more independence, the group is more powerful than it has been in years.
This week’s attacks, which the Houthis said were conducted in solidarity with the Palestinians, not only show the hollowness of Trump’s supposed ceasefire, but also the resilience of the militant rebels and the limits of airstrikes, experts say.
The Houthis have survived years of strikes and become adept at hiding their military equipment. They have also broadened alliances and supply lines to try to wean themselves off support from Iran.
Trump’s declaration of victory in May was murky from the start, according to Wolf-Christian Paes, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
While Trump had publicly said the Houthis had agreed to stop attacks, the group itself had continued to say it would attack vessels linked to Israel and its allies.
Any deal between the two was in fact probably only restricted to US vessels, he said.
The American-led campaign of airstrikes that Trump claimed had “decimated” the Houthis had also been less effective than the President might have boasted, experts said.
A two-year campaign of strikes conducted under Joe Biden and then Trump is estimated to have cost at least US$7 billion ($11b).
The Houthis had already weathered years of air attacks from Saudi-led forces and had become used to hiding their weapons to conduct mobile hit-and-run strikes.
The recent strikes also showed the range of military options that the Houthis have for hitting vessels. While they have been reliant on Iran for high-end missile technology, they can manufacture drones and deploy small boats themselves.
Explosive charges were carefully placed around the Magic Seas carrier and detonated remotely to make it sink to the sea floor.
Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Chatham House think-tank, said: “The Houthis will continue for a long time to be able to strike. Their military power is beyond what anyone can imagine or think.”
Certainly, their methods have evolved. Martin Kelly, the head of advisory at EOS Risk Group, told the Telegraph: “The Houthis are the first actors in the world to successfully engage a ship using an anti-ship ballistic missile. Not a state actor, not Iran, not Russia, not China, but the Houthis.”
He noted that their range of weapons has grown too, with a fresh focus on unmanned vehicles.
Drones, Kelly said, “can be flown into a ship with a relatively small warhead, but can cause significant damage, particularly if it’s to hit the bridge or it was to breach the hull of a vessel”.
Unmanned surface vessels, he added, are possibly “the most dangerous type of weapon that the Houthis can use”.
These are speedboats packed with explosives that can be directed by remote control and driven into the side of a ship, making a hole at water level and causing the ships to sink more quickly.
One Iranian official also claimed to the Telegraph that the group had become increasingly independent. The source said: “We used to support them a lot, but now they have their own plans”.
“They’ve seen that neither Trump nor Israel could stop them, so they think – why not sink a few more ships?
“They do it for domestic reasons. They’re not very popular among Yemenis, but Yemenis like Palestine, so taking action for Gaza boosts [the Houthis’] popularity.
“We believe they’re bolder now because they’ve learnt that when the US or Israel bombs them, it doesn’t really stop their plans. Their strikes do nothing to stop them.”
The group may also have a financial incentive for stepping up attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
Last year, United Nations experts said the Houthis were allegedly collecting as much as US$180 million each month from shipping agencies to allow vessels to sail through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden without being attacked.
While the report was questioned by maritime safety experts, such income would be one of the Houthis’ main revenue streams.
As part of widening their alliances, the group has reportedly built ties with the Al Shabaab group on the Somali side of the Gulf of Aden.
The alliance has given the Houthis access to a network of ports such as Bosaso along the Somali coast, broadening out supply routes to smuggle arms into Yemen, according to the Pentagon’s Africa Centre for Strategic Studies.
Resuming attacks not only raises the group’s international profile but also helps deflect criticism from inside their own territory where the group has a woeful record at governing.
Bader Mousa Al-Saif, a professor of history at the University of Kuwait, said: “What the Houthis have been doing is ... trying to escape their responsibilities for governing the country and resolving their differences with the other parties”.
“They are going after external targets that make them look popular in the region and keep them away from focusing on the real job of governing.”
Ultimately, the resumption in attacks has underlined that there is no military solution to stopping attacks on vessels, experts said.
Mahmoud Shehrah, a former Yemeni diplomat, said: “Stopping Houthis from their attacks or deterring Houthis, needs a strategy, a coherent and inclusive strategy. Striking them is not enough. You need to change the power dynamics on the ground.”
Paes added: “No amount of air strikes, whether American or Israeli, is going to make this stop. The only thing that will make this stop will be some sort of political deal.”