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Home / World

Race for the White House: Biden leads Trump by 14 points in new poll

By Ben Riley-Smith
Daily Telegraph UK·
24 Jun, 2020 07:30 PM5 mins to read

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Democrat, former Vice-President Joe Biden, and US President Donald Trump, the US president. Photo / AP file

Democrat, former Vice-President Joe Biden, and US President Donald Trump, the US president. Photo / AP file

United States President Donald Trump is 14 percentage points behind former Vice-President Joe Biden, a new poll has found, revealing the vast gap the incumbent must narrow in the next four months if he is to win a second term.

The New York Times poll matches other recent surveys showing Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, far in the lead as Trump struggles to readjust to an electoral landscape transformed by the coronavirus pandemic.

Biden is not just winning by huge margins among women, voters under 50 and African-Americans, according to the poll, but is also ahead with men, a voting group which has consistently been with Trump throughout his presidency.

It's not just that Trump is way down in the polls that puts his reelection campaign in such dangerous territory. It's that he refuses to believe he's down, and make strategic adjustments based on a theory of why he's down. https://t.co/yX1OV1PmQD

— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) June 24, 2020

The findings will cause further alarm in the Trump campaign as it appears to struggle to find a message that connects with voters after the Covid-19 outbreak forced the spotlight onto Trump's ability to lead during a crisis.

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The pandemic has pushed the US economy into recession, robbing Trump of the booming growth that was the bedrock of his re-election pitch, and left more than 120,000 Americans dead from Covid-19.

A key attack line the Trump campaign had been deploying for months, about how "radical socialists" now dominate the Democratic Party, has also been weakened given Bernie Sanders's failure to win the party's nomination.

What jumps out in our poll: the contempt younger white voters have for Trump.

And not just the kids (tm)

Whites under the age of 45:

Biden 52
Trump 30https://t.co/X41JG6aiPG

— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) June 24, 2020

It means Trump will be hoping for a major change in fortunes in the less than 150 days to go before the vote, which will see both sides holding conventions in August before the much-anticipated head-to-head debates.

The new poll, which was conducted with Sienna College and asked around 1300 voters for their views, puts Biden's lead at the high end of recent similar surveys.

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However Biden is constantly shown with a sizable lead. Real Clear Politics, a website which has a rolling average of recent polls, puts Biden's lead at 10 percentage points.

It’s hard to find a Democrat who doesn’t wish the election was next week.But it’s a long, long time from June to November. Polls are fickle creatures.

— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) June 24, 2020

While nationwide polling has its limitations - the election will ultimately be won in a handful of battleground states - it provides a snapshot of what US voters feel about the two candidates.

Trump's 36 per cent logged by the New York Times is well below the 46 per cent he won in the 2016 election, suggesting many of those with him then are having second thoughts.

Biden leads Trump by 22 percentage points among women, 34 points among those aged under 34 and 74 points among black voters, according to the poll.

Recent surveys have shown that while Biden is trusted best to handle the coronavirus crisis, Trump is better trusted on the economy.

That "rest of Milwaukee" area is key. Romney got a 130k vote margin out of the WOW counties. Trump got a 120k vote margin. If that falls to just 80k - well, that would be double Trump's final margin over Clinton, gone. https://t.co/ixjlytemfm

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) June 24, 2020

The finding helps explain why Trump, a life-long businessman who still frames himself as a political outsider, is expressing hope signs of the economic recovery will emerge before the November 3 election.

Yesterday Biden held his first campaign event with Barack Obama, the former US President who he served alongside for eight years.

Obama warned against complacency, saying: "We can't be complacent or smug or sense that somehow it's so obvious that this president hasn't done a good job, because look, he won once."

Biden's 28 point lead among college+ whites here is bigger than exit polls, Pew, Catalist or CCES estimated for 2016 & his 19pt deficit w/non college whites is smaller than any of those sources recorded. Guessing women lead way on both fronts.https://t.co/swxREGErDl

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) June 24, 2020

He added: "This is serious business. Whatever you've done so far is not enough. And I hold myself and Michelle and our kids to that same standard."

Some 120,000 people logged on to watch the two men speak in a video conference online, with the campaign saying US$7.6 million was raised by the event.

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The ended the event with expressions of warmth. "Love you Joe," Obama said to finish the call. "Love you too, pal," Biden responded.

Donald Trump will ink his 200th judge in the Senate today, outpacing every president for four decades.

They are young (mostly in their 40s or 50s), conservative and Federalist Society-vetted.

Their impact on American law will outlast him by generations.https://t.co/6Kx1yAS26J

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) June 24, 2020

Meanwhile Trump was back in Washington meeting the Polish president today after a campaign trip saw him visit sections of his border fence in Arizona.

Around 355km of new fencing along the US-Mexico border have been erected during his presidency, though the vast majority replaces barriers that were already in place.

Trump also addressed a room full of young supporters, most of whom did not wear face masks despite the coronavirus pandemic, at a mega church in Phoenix.

The President again warned of mass voter fraud through postal ballots, saying: "This will be, in my opinion, the most corrupt election in the history of our country."

Trump had voiced similar concerns before the 2016 election, which he claimed would be a "rigged" vote, before defying the polls to win - a feat he hopes to repeat in November.

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