The United States economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to his biggest weakness, a new study claims.

The economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released by Oxford Economics has predicted.

The study predicted Trump would win just 35 per cent of the popular vote, compared to a previous pre-coronavirus prediction that picked the president to win 55 per cent of the vote.

In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote, gaining 46.2 per cent to Hillary Clinton's 48.1 per cent, but secured victory by taking swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Florida.


The Oxford Economics model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts Trump will lose in a landslide. It would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.

"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favour Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."

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The model has proven accurate in its predictions every year since 1948, except for 1968 and 1976, and works off the assumption that the US economy will not have bounced back from the pandemic by this autumn, with unemployment rates above 13 per cent, and household incomes 6 per cent lower.

"The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression," the report said.

"An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6 per cent below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."

Trump trailed Biden 38 per cent to 46 per cent among registered voters in the latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday (US time).