Nevertheless, Turquin believes it to be genuine. He cited letters from an agent who was buying Caravaggio pictures on behalf of a duke in 1607, reporting from the Italian artist's studio that he had produced a beautiful painting of "three figures, half-length".
Other documents follow it to Antwerp, where it disappeared from the record until it was found unnoticed in the Toulouse farmhouse in 2014, dirty and water-damaged.
Turquin said: "The picture has an extraordinary energy. This cannot be the work of a copyist, or if it's a copyist he is a genius."
A Caravaggio has sold at auction only once before as all but two of the 65 known works are in public collections or churches. The painting, which is on display at the Colnaghi gallery in Mayfair until March 9, depicts the biblical tale of Judith, a widow who beheads an enemy general. Caravaggio had produced a similar scene in an earlier work.