Iraq violence reaches chilling heights

By PATRICk COCKBURN

The chilling show of strength by Iraqi insurgents in attacking cities and towns across central and northern Iraq, killing at least 100 people and wounding more than 320, demonstrates they have achieved a level of co-ordination not seen before.

They struck at police stations and Iraqi Government facilities from Mosul in the north to Fallujah and Ramadi in the west, and showed the US Army has an uncertain grip on swathes of Iraq, 14 months after President George W. Bush declared major combat over.

The US-led Coalition Provisional Authority even warns its employees only to use the airport road at certain times of day.

The CPA and the US Army predicted an upsurge in violence, suggesting the rebels would want to spoil the supposed hand-over of power to an interim-Iraqi Government.

But the ease which the insurgents mounted the attacks suggests the guerrilla warfare is likely to intensify.

Many of the dead were from among the 89,000 blue-uniformed Iraqi policemen who still lack effective machine guns, bullet proof vests and armoured vehicles.

The attacks also emphasise that the US does not have enough soldiers here. It is already stretched to keep 138,000 in the field. It has in addition 23,000 soldiers from assorted allies, notably Britain, but many of the others either will not fight or will only engage in humanitarian work.

The most lethal weapon is the roadside bomb, usually made out of several heavy artillery shells, to which the US Army has found no answer.

Although this week's attacks were better co-ordinated than anything in the past, the resistance is still fragmented.

The fighting was all in Sunni Muslim areas and in places that have seen fighting before. Fallujah and the mid-Euphrates area remains the heart of the rebellion.

Outside Kurdistan, the US occupation is unpopular throughout Iraq. The CPA's poll in May showed 92 per cent of Arab Iraqis consider the Americans as occupiers and just 2 per cent see them as liberators.

The base of Saddam Hussein's regime was the rural Sunni Arabs from outside Baghdad and the largest cities. The urban Sunni had flourished under the monarchy so it is not surprising that they were the first to rebel.

The rebels are nationalist and religious. The US always appears to underestimate the strength of Iraqi nationalism. Militant Islamic groups have flourished in western Iraq. In Fallujah they have been searching for shops that might sell alcohol, warning barbers against giving western haircuts and demanding that women wear the veil.

It has always appeared that there is a difference between the broader resistance movement and the car-bombing campaign. The latter has long appeared to be centrally co-ordinated. The men who kill themselves are often foreign but the safe houses, intelligence, purchase of cars and general support is Iraqi.

The US has long pushed the idea that a Jordanian called Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, linked to al Qaeda and supposed head of the Tawhid and Jihad movement, is the organising genius behind the suicide attacks.

This may be so but the evidence for his role is still somewhat slight consisting of a long letter he is believed to have written and statements on Islamic websites.

Many members of the present Iraqi Government believe Syrian and Iranian intelligence plays a bigger role in the anti-US campaign than is appreciated.

But most of the resistance in Iraq is intensely local. The US Army has found if a town or city is threatened all the young men are likely to join the battle.

The most recent attacks show how difficult the guerrilla war will be to end while the occupation continues.

The heaviest fighting was in Baquba 56km northeast of Baghdad where US aircraft dropped three 500-pound bombs as American tanks and infantry battled resistance fighters in the centre of the city.

Casualties flooded into Baquba hospital. One man screamed: "May God destroy America and all who co-operate with it."

The worst casualties were in Mosul where seven car bombs went off. In Ramadi a volley of rocket-propelled grenades struck the central police station.

In all, nine police officers were killed and another 27 wounded.

- INDEPENDENT

Herald Feature: Iraq