Incumbent governments in the firing line with over 60 countries set to vote in 2024 - The Front Page

Former US President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, on May 11. Photo / AP

The global political landscape could look very different by the end of this year.

More than 60 countries around the world will elect their government in 2024. Countries such as Russia and Taiwan have already had theirs, India’s is still ongoing, while the United Kingdom, European Union and United States of America will all have theirs by the year’s end as well.

With roughly half the world’s population due to vote, more people will be heading to the polls in one year than at any other point in human history.

Professor of Global History at Oxford University and best-selling author, Peter Frankopan, was recently in New Zealand to discuss what has been dubbed ‘the election year’ at the Auckland Writer’s Festival. Speaking to The Front Page, Frankopan said that a common thread so far has been that incumbent governments are struggling to hold power.

“In the UK, we look like we’re going to have a big change. It’s on a knife edge in the United States. Here in New Zealand, there was an important change in your last election.

“And I think the inability of existing governments to bring their populations with them and for people to look for change is quite striking. We are living in very, very uncertain times of new technologies, climate change, a whole bunch of different problems that I think are scaring people, and therefore people don’t want to give the chance to those in power.”

The US election in November will see incumbent Joe Biden face his predecessor Donald Trump in a rematch of the 2020 election. Despite concerns that America is falling, Frankopan said that the country is the strongest he’s seen it in his whole lifetime, with high valuation of the Dow Jones and most major tech companies based in America.

He said that people can be distracted by playing “the man, not the ball”, and Biden is more similar to Trump than people acknowledge.

“Biden’s just put a whole new bunch of sanctions and tariffs on China, like Trump did. Biden is busy trying to stop people getting into the United States, like Trump did. Biden is busy giving permissions for oil and gas pipelines, just like Trump did.

“In terms of substance, you know, how America deals with China, what happens to the developing world, what happens in this age of climate change, I think we could probably see that the change of government or the change of administration, if it happens, may not be quite as dramatic as perhaps some people expect.”

In amongst these major changes, New Zealand is looking to expand its trading partners, eyeing new deals with India and Southeast Asia. Frankopan said that the world is changing faster than people realise, and that the West needs to adapt – starting with the classroom.

“Very few kids at any part of the world spend time looking, watching Chinese films or looking at Indian contemporary art or reading novels written by Arab writers. We keep busy teaching kids about King Henry VIII and his six wives, even here in New Zealand. And I think that at some point you’ve got to adapt to what the 21st century looks like.”

Listen to the full episode for more from Peter Frankopan about this year’s many elections, the importance of broadening which countries we interact with and think about, and what his latest research into fallen civlisations can teach us about our future.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.

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