KEY POINTS:
CANBERRA - If the polls are correct, Kevin Rudd's time has come.
The former diplomat and academic from Queensland's Sunshine Coast leads a Labor Party that has risen from the ashes to an ascendancy that has failed to dim since the start of the year.
Rudd's Labor has
defied the accepted wisdom of previous elections and maintained a landslide lead into Prime Minister John Howard's end-game, avoiding the dramatic narrowing of polls that has traditionally marked other contests.
Put simply, if the intentions of respondents to the major polls are translated into national voting patterns, Howard and the Coalition will be trashed.
Few will be brave enough to make this prediction without qualification.
In 1993, the polls cast similar projections for Liberal leader John Hewson, then in Opposition, in his contest against Labor incumbent Paul Keating.
At the last moment, fears of Hewson's promised GST turned the tide and Keating had his famous and only "true believers" victory.
In 2001 Howard similarly turned voters around after a run of grim polls, following his exploitation of latent fears of Labor's ability to manage the economy, and his decision to remove asylum seekers from the Norwegian freighter Tampa and send them into detention in Nauru and Papua New Guinea.
And at the last election Howard steamrollered Labor after an unpromising start to the campaign, encouraging the abrasive Mark Latham to shoot himself in the foot.
Political analysts also know that polls are a snapshot in time, and may not accurately predict what voters will actually do when they enter polling booths.
There is an election-deciding pool of swinging voters who do not make up their minds until the last 48 or 24 hours of the campaign with some not deciding until their pens are poised over ballot papers.
According to a study by Australian National University Professor Ian McAllister and Dr Juliet Clarke from Deakin University, Australian voters are now more volatile than ever.
And under the Australian system of preferential voting, minor players - especially the Greens - can divert primary votes away from the major parties, diluting support and potentially changing the final results in marginal seats.
Labor also has a hard road to travel - it must pick up an extra 16 seats to win Government.
But even with these qualifications, the consistency of polling this year suggests that Howard will need something of a miracle to survive, even if his record demonstrates a remarkable talent for survival.
Analysis by the Sydney Morning Herald showed that ACNeilsen polling in the run-up to Howard's 1996 landslide gave the Coalition Opposition a primary vote of 47 per cent and a two-party preferred vote of 54 per cent - a result replicated on election day.
In the past six months Labor has held an average primary vote of 48 per cent and a two-party preferred average of 57 per cent, presenting a bleak outlook for the Government.
Similar trends have shown in polling by Newspoll, whose most recent results gave Labor a 12-point two-party preferred lead over the Coalition.
Roy Morgan Research's latest telephone poll suggested an even larger 18 percentage point lead to Labor, adding to earlier polling pointing to a Rudd landslide.
While marginal seats will be crucial to the outcome, Newspoll found voters in these key seats also preferred Labor, by 58 per cent to 42 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. In the two biggest states of New South Wales and Victoria, support for Labor is running at about 60 per cent.
Of the states, Western Australia appears to be squarely in Coalition hands: in the two biggest states of New South Wales and Victoria, support for Labor is running at about 60 per cent.
Nor is Howard any longer the nation's first choice as leader.
Since mid-February, Rudd has eclipsed him as preferred prime minister by about 10 percentage points since August.
Howard's key strength is economic management, after a decade of golden years that included Australia's safe passage through the Asian meltdown of the late 1990s.
While as many as 20 per cent of respondents thought there was no difference, or did not have an opinion, Howard has regularly and convincingly outclassed Rudd as the better economic manager in Newspolls. Similar preference has been reflected in ACNeilsen polling.
Most Australians also think Howard is better able to handle the nation's security, and is a stronger and more decisive leader.
But while Howard is considered arrogant and out of touch, Rudd is believed to have greater vision for the future and a better understanding of the major issues, as well as being seen as more trustworthy and caring and better able to manage health.
Where Howard and Rudd stand on the issues
Iraq
Australia's election will decide the future for the country's controversial military commitment in Iraq. Australia has about 1500 troops in and around Iraq, and conservative Prime Minister John Howard was one of the first to commit his country to the United States-led war against Saddam Hussein in 2003. Howard, a close friend and ally of US President George W. Bush, has promised Australian forces will remain in Iraq until it can look after its own security. Opposition Labor leader Kevin Rudd has promised to withdraw about 500 Australian frontline troops, who are mainly based in Iraq's relatively peaceful south.
Climate change
Howard's Government has steadfastly refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol or set targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions, saying the move would unfairly hurt Australia's economy and massive coal exports. Labor has promised to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which sets binding targets for greenhouse gas emissions, and has promised to cut carbon emissions by 60 per cent of 2000 levels by 2050. Climate change has become an increasingly important issue, with Australia going through its worst drought in a century and most Australians now subjected to restrictions on water use. Labor says Howard is out of touch and a climate change sceptic, while the Government has accused Labor of a knee-jerk response that will hurt Australia's economy.
Labour laws
In his fourth term, Howard introduced sweeping new labour laws which make it easier for employers to sack workers, limit the influence of unions, and encourage workers to sign individual contracts rather than work under award conditions. Employers, particularly mining companies in booming Western Australia, have embraced the new laws, which give added flexibility to their operations. But the laws have led to increased uncertainty among workers, with the union movement running a concerted campaign warning that bosses can now sack workers with no reason, and hire them back on lower wages - claims the Government rejects. Labor has promised to wind back the workplace laws.
Economy
Economic management has long been an electoral strength for Howard's Government, which has presided over 11 years of sustained economic growth, with close to full employment and record levels of private share ownership. A sustained boom, fuelled by China's demand for Australian resources, has put pressure on inflation and interest rates, which have risen five times since Howard won the last election with a promise to keep rates low. Interest rates are a sensitive political issue in Australia, where home ownership is a national obsession. Housing affordability is at record lows and many people in key outer suburban electorates are feeling the impact of rising interest rates and debt levels. Home loan mortgage rates have risen five times since the last election, with economists forecasting another possible hike in the months ahead, blunting Howard's usual advantage. Rudd has attempted to neutralise the economy as an issue through TV ads where he describes himself as an economic conservative.
- Reuters
