SUVA - Fiji goes to the polls on Saturday to restore democracy after a nationalist coup in May last year, but political stability may still be elusive in the racially splintered South Pacific island chain.
Despite campaign speeches calling for unity and forgiveness, Indian and Fijian politicians remain deeply divided on how to reconcile the racial differences which have fuelled three coups and a military mutiny in 13 years.
On the streets there is concern that nationalists who backed failed businessman George Speight's coup in May last year could again plunge Fiji into violence if ethnic Indian parties dominate the poll.
New Zealand Foreign Minister Phil Goff has warned that Fiji risks becoming an unstable "banana republic" if ethnic extremists do not accept the outcome of the ballot.
"The riskiest period for Fiji is not so much the election campaign itself but immediately afterwards if a government was formed, or support was given to political parties, in a way that caused a violent reaction from extremist groups," Goff said yesterday.
The army, which is predominantly indigenous Fijian, says it will respect the election result and maintain law and order and obey the non-elected President Josefa Iloilo.
The week-long poll will end on Saturday September 1, but counting will not start until the following Monday as some ballot boxes must be transported by boat from far-flung islands.
Fiji's first ethnic Indian prime minister Mahendra Chaudhry, toppled in last year's coup, says Fijians are ready to accept another ethnic Indian leader.
Chaudhry says if his Indian-dominated Fiji Labour Party wins, his government would simply pick up from where it left off last year when gunmen stormed parliament and held him and most of his multi-racial cabinet hostage for 56 days.
Chaudhry, criticised for his autocratic style, remains confident he would again be prime minister.
"If we have the mandate ... If the Labour party wins the election, yes. Not to do so would succumb to the forces of racism and terrorism," Chaudhry told local media while campaigning.
And with the indigenous Fijian vote splintered among a plethora of parties, analysts say Chaudhry could again dominate the election as when he won a landslide victory in 1999.
Ethnic Indians make up about 44 per cent of the 800,000 population and dominate business, but their economic clout has not been matched by political power.
Indigenous Fijians have resisted Indo-Fijian attempts to strengthen their political influence, overthrowing two Indian-dominated governments.
Caretaker prime minister Laisenia Qarase, put in place by the military after the coup, warns it will take up to 30 years for indigenous Fijians to accept an ethnic Indian prime minister.
"Fiji, in my assessment is not ready for a non-Fijian leadership," Qarase told FM96 radio this week.
"It may take 20 to 30 years to change the attitudes and perceptions of Fijians towards national leadership. I am not being racist ... I am just trying to be realistic," he said.
A bureaucrat until he was thrust into the political limelight, Qarase will lead the indigenous Fijian United Party, or Soqosoqo Duavata ni Lewenivanua (SDL), which was launched in July last year.
Qarase is liked by the business community which believes he is best placed to repair the country's battered economy, but he has done little to broaden his appeal among ethnic Indian voters.
Qarase called Chaudhry a racist on Monday and said he would prefer not to deal with him in the new parliament.
Political analysts say Qarase will probably win his seat, but it remains debatable whether his party, which represents most of the interim cabinet, can win a parliamentary majority.
The seeds of Fiji's racial woes were planted at the turn of the century when Britain brought indentured Indian labourers to work on Fiji's sugar cane plantations.
Ethnic Indians now dominate the two main sectors of the economy - sugar and tourism.
Fiji's electoral system splinters the country along racial lines, with parliament's 71 seats divided into 46 communal Fijian and ethnic Indian seats and 25 mixed race or "open" seats.
Of the communal seats, indigenous Fijians have 23, Indians have 19, the ethnic Rotuma islanders have one. Three urban constituencies are shared.
Chaudhry is again expected to sweep the Indian-dominated sugar-cane belt in Fiji's west, but may fall short of a landslide of Indian seats after his former deputy, Tupeni Baba, formed the breakaway New Labour Unity Party in May.
Baba, an indigenous Fijian, may struggle to be re-elected but his party could win several urban ethnic Indian seats, analysts say. Baba has predicted his party would win 18 seats and be the major party in a new coalition government.
Under Fijian law the president must appoint a prime minister who has the majority support of all elected MPs, not just those from the major parties.
If Baba is re-elected he could emerge as a figurehead that bridges the racial divide in the next parliament and someone who may be acceptable on the streets.
Other key players and parties in the election are:
* Soqosoqo ni Vakavulewa ni Taukei (SVT), an indigenous Fijian party set up by traditional chiefs. The SVT used to be the dominant party under former prime minister Sitiveni Rabuka but fell apart after its 1999 election failure. Under its new leader, Filipe Bole, the SVT has reunited and should win some seats.
* Adi Kuini Speed, a paramount chief and one of Chaudhry's two deputy prime ministers, leads the Fijian Association Party (FAP) and is widely respected as a champion of multi-racial democracy. The FAP won 11 seats in 1999, but is fighting Qarase's new party for indigenous votes this time around.
* Coup leader George Speight may be stuck on an island prison off Suva awaiting a treason trial, but he is also standing as a candidate for the small nationalist Conservative Alliance. If he is convicted he would have to relinquish his seat in parliament.
- REUTERS
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