California Governor Gavin Newsom. California voters will decide whether to approve a measure, spearheaded by Newsom, which would redraw the state’s congressional maps to favour Democrats, a way to parry a similar move in Texas boosting Republicans. Photo / Getty Images
California Governor Gavin Newsom. California voters will decide whether to approve a measure, spearheaded by Newsom, which would redraw the state’s congressional maps to favour Democrats, a way to parry a similar move in Texas boosting Republicans. Photo / Getty Images
Today’s elections in the United States will show how voters are judging Donald Trump’s policies since he returned to the presidency in January and could offer an early indicator of the battle for congressional control in next year’s Midterms.
Virginia, hit hard by the US Government shutdown and Trump’sdrive to reduce the federal workforce, will tap a new governor.
In New Jersey, polls forecast a tight race between the Democratic contender for governor and a Republican endorsed by the president.
New York City voters will choose among Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo running as an independent and a Republican contender. Trump has threatened to pull federal funding from the city if Mamdani is elected.
As redistricting battles pop up across the country, California voters will decide whether to approve a measure, spearheaded by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, which would redraw the state’s congressional maps to favour Democrats, a way to parry a similar move in Texas boosting Republicans.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger, 46, and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, 61, are vying to replace the term-limited Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican.
Whoever wins the election will become the first female governor of the commonwealth, home to the Pentagon, Central Intelligence Agency and hundreds of thousands of military and civilian federal workers.
Spanberger, a former CIA officer and congresswoman, has staked her campaign on the local economy, arguing that Trump has made it more uncertain and expensive.
Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, has focused on social issues that appeal to Trump supporters and paint Democrats as out of step with the broader electorate.
Down the ballot, the state’s attorney-general contest was roiled after text messages from Democratic nominee Jay Jones - musing about violent acts toward a former Republican state lawmaker - were made public.
The revelation has made the campaign more competitive, with recent polls showing Jones neck and neck with Republican incumbent Jason Miyares.
Either outcome in the Virginia lieutenant governor’s race will make history.
Democrat Ghazala Hashmi would be the first South Asian and Muslim to hold the post, and Republican John Reid would be the first openly gay winner.
All 100 seats in the state’s House of Delegates are up for election. Democrats need to hold their majority in that chamber to continue their push to redraw congressional maps to favour their party in 2026.
Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears. Photo / Stefani Reynolds, Al Drago of Bloomberg, via The Washington Post
What’s on the ballot in New Jersey?
New Jersey’s gubernatorial race has emerged as a barometer of public sentiment since Trump made deep inroads with voters in the historically blue state, losing by a far closer margin than four years earlier.
Representative Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, is facing off against former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, who said during an October debate that Trump’s “right about everything that he’s doing”.
Sherrill, 53, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor, gained prominence after flipping her northern New Jersey congressional district in 2018. Her platform includes overhauling zoning rules to repurpose underutilised commercial spaces for residential use, fully funding NJ Transit and expanding state-funded childcare.
Ciattarelli, 63, is doubling down on a Maga agenda: cutting taxes, shrinking government and pushing legislation to curb what he describes as kindergarten students learning about sexual orientation, garnering criticism from LGBTQ groups.
Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill. Photo / Joe Lamberti, Adam Gray of Bloomberg via The Washington Post
What do polls show in the New York City mayor’s race?
Recent polls show Mamdani, 34, as the frontrunner.
If he wins, the state assemblyman would make history as New York City’s first Muslim and South Asian mayor.
Cuomo, 67, who resigned as governor under a cloud of sexual-harassment allegations that he denies, is in second place after losing to Mamdani in the Democratic primary.
Republican Curtis Sliwa, a red-beret-wearing founder of the safety patrol Guardian Angels, has consistently trailed in polls and has rebuffed incentives to drop out and make Cuomo’s bid easier.
The contest will not only decide the leader of the world’s financial capital - it could also offer the Democratic party a glimpse of its future and approach to Trump.
Newsom is asking Californians to vote yes on Proposition 50, the Democratic response to Republicans’ efforts, pushed by Trump, to redraw congressional districts in red states across the country to maintain their House majority in the 2026 Midterms.
If approved, the measure will temporarily over-ride an independent commission that draws California’s congressional maps in favour of a revamp designed to flip five GOP-held seats to Democrats.
California is among a dozen states that have either already redrawn their congressional maps for the 2026 election or are actively considering doing so. Another six states face pending legal challenges that could produce new court-ordered maps.
Why do these races matter?
The contests mark the unofficial launch of the 2026 campaign season and the first major test with voters since Trump returned to the White House.
In less than a year, he has moved quickly to carry out his agenda - backed by a deferential Republican-controlled Congress and a friendly Supreme Court.
He has triggered a global tariff war, deployed National Guard troops to Democratic-led cities, and shrunk the federal workforce.
The races will also reveal which issues are resonating with voters.
Both parties will closely scrutinise these off-cycle election results to build their strategy and messaging priorities for the 2026 Midterms.
What impact does the shutdown have on the races?
The elections occur against the backdrop of what is poised to be the longest federal government shutdown in Washington.
With no end to the impasse in sight, the closure is set to hit its 36th day tomorrow, beating the record set in Trump’s first term.
Polls from NBC News and Quinnipiac University show that voters blame Republicans more than Democrats for the stalemate.
That doesn’t mean they are rallying behind Democrats, however. In the Quinnipiac poll, just 26% of voters approve of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job, while 67% disapprove.
Users of prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi Inc. see Democrats winning the key races today.
Kalshi shows 89% predicting that Mamdani will head to Gracie Mansion and 60% wagering that Spanberger will win her Virginia gubernatorial bid, as of yesterday.
At its competitor Polymarket, 86% predict that Sherrill will win the New Jersey governor’s race. And 99% bet on passage of California’s Proposition 50. Terminal users can run WSL ELECTION for the latest predictions.
When do polling places close and when can we expect results?
Virginia polls close at 7pm local time (1pm). As of yesterday, 1.45 million early ballots have been cast, according to a tracker by the Associated Press.
New Jersey polls close at 8pm local time. As of yesterday, 1.33 million ballots have already been cast, according to the AP tracker.
New York City polls close at 9pm local time. As of Monday, 735,317 ballots have been cast, according to the city’s board of elections.
In California, voting ends at 8pm local time (5pm). About 28% of ballots sent to voters have been returned as of yesterday, according to Political Data Inc.
- With assistance from Gregory Korte and Jennah Haque.
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