NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / World

Covid 19 coronavirus: The virus conundrum - eliminate or eradicate?

By Paul Nuki
Daily Telegraph UK·
21 Feb, 2021 12:00 AM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

A group of 25 vaccinators have given and received their first Covid-19 vaccinations this afternoon. Video / Supplied

ANALYSIS:

What will become of Sars-CoV-2? Will it be a smallpox we are able to hunt down and eradicate; a measles we are able to eliminate in some parts of the world but not others; or an influenza, a virus we must go to war against every year?

The question has been increasingly exercising scientists and politicians in recent weeks and - without some basic ground rules - risks opening another destabilising divide.

In cartoon terms, there are two opposing and extremist camps: the Zero Covid brigade, who would have us locked down until the virus is wiped from the face of the Earth; and the Covid Sceptics who think the whole pandemic has somehow been overblown.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"It starts with Zero Covid, then it'll be Zero Flu, Zero CO2 and so on and so forth. Pandora's box has opened," opines one Twitter warrior. The truth is, no one can yet be sure where Sars-CoV-2 is headed and the degree to which we can influence its trajectory is much exaggerated.

The late Dr Donald Henderson, the man who spearheaded the smallpox eradication programme, noted some viruses are simply more susceptible to eradication than others. In a 2013 interview, he said: "From my examination of the characteristics and needs for eradicating other diseases, each has prominent features that makes it far more difficult than smallpox. With smallpox, we had a vaccine so heat stable that teams travelled in the field without refrigeration devices."

In scientific terms, eradication means chasing it down to such an extent that there are no further cases or transmission anywhere in the world. We managed it with smallpox and are on the brink of doing it with polio, but that's it.

Elimination, on the other hand, has a different objective. When scientists set about eliminating a disease they aim to reduce cases to zero or thereabouts in a given geography - and this we have been much more successful with. In many nations, diseases including measles, mumps, cholera, typhoid, trachoma and tuberculosis can be said to have been successfully eliminated.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
A Covid-19 elimination strategy, like the one implemented in New Zealand, seeks to reduce cases to zero or thereabouts in a given geography. Photo / Getty Images
A Covid-19 elimination strategy, like the one implemented in New Zealand, seeks to reduce cases to zero or thereabouts in a given geography. Photo / Getty Images

Might it be possible to permanently eliminate Sars-CoV-2 in countries like Britain? Much will depend on the performance of vaccines and the ability of the virus to evolve to evade them.

Experts across the world are genuinely flabbergasted by the apparent success of the new mRNA-based Pfizer and Moderna jabs. The super-high efficacy levels recorded in trials appear to be holding up in the real world and data released by Israel last week suggests they may also all but cut out transmission of the virus.

Discover more

New Zealand|politics

National wants MIQ moved outside of central Auckland

20 Feb 10:09 PM
New Zealand|politics

Inside this week's urgent debate in Parliament on alert level changes

20 Feb 07:54 PM
World

Covid explainer: How will we know we've reached herd immunity?

20 Feb 08:43 PM
World

Arrests in Australia as anti-vax protesters clash with police

20 Feb 07:39 PM

On the other hand, the virus is showing signs of the sort of drift seen with seasonal flu.

"We're not going to eliminate [Covid] globally so we won't eliminate it here," said Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London last week. "I would like to see this virus become like influenza and managed in similar ways."

Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University Medical School, does not disagree. She too thinks the virus is endemic and that eradication is, for the moment at least, nothing more than a pipe dream. But for Sridhar, it is a mistake - "a fundamental error" - to equate suppression of the virus with a loss of individual freedoms.

Professor Devi Sridhar says it is a mistake to equate an elimination strategy with the loss of individual freedoms. Photo / Michael Craig
Professor Devi Sridhar says it is a mistake to equate an elimination strategy with the loss of individual freedoms. Photo / Michael Craig

"The higher your numbers, the less freedom you have. The lower your numbers, the more freedom you have," she says, pointing to countries which made early short-term sacrifices for longer-term gains.

"The whole puzzle of Covid has always been, 'how do you keep your numbers low and do it in a way that keeps you out of harsh lockdowns like the one we're in?'" she says.

Although it was forcefully rejected at the outset of the pandemic in Britain, this is the view now dominant in Downing Street and much of the rest of Europe.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

A policy of suppression has taken over from mitigation because that approach has so obviously failed.

Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Latest from World

World

‘Hug therapy’: How Pope Leo is trying to unify Vatican

04 Jul 07:14 AM
Premium
World

Teenage aviator detained after landing near Antarctica

04 Jul 06:59 AM
World

The search for answers after ferry tragedy between Java and Bali

04 Jul 06:15 AM

There’s more to Hawai‘i than beaches and buffets – here’s how to see it differently

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from World

‘Hug therapy’: How Pope Leo is trying to unify Vatican

‘Hug therapy’: How Pope Leo is trying to unify Vatican

04 Jul 07:14 AM

Pope Leo XIV has focused on unity and tradition after Francis’ reformist tenure.

Premium
Teenage aviator detained after landing near Antarctica

Teenage aviator detained after landing near Antarctica

04 Jul 06:59 AM
The search for answers after ferry tragedy between Java and Bali

The search for answers after ferry tragedy between Java and Bali

04 Jul 06:15 AM
Premium
Maybe it’s not just ageing - maybe it’s anaemia

Maybe it’s not just ageing - maybe it’s anaemia

04 Jul 06:00 AM
From early mornings to easy living
sponsored

From early mornings to easy living

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP