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MOSCOW - In the darkest depths of the Arctic Ocean a new Cold War is brewing. American and British nuclear submarines lurk in the shadows, preparing for company.
"Why has Britain been sending submarines into Arctic waters?" asked Rob Huebert, associate director of the Centre for Military and
Strategic Studies in Calgary.
"Because it wants to retain its capability to deal with the Russian threat."
Such talk is redolent of a Le Carre novel. But the battle between the West and Russia over who owns the Arctic has been building for years.
Last week it entered a new phase when Russia announced it was sending miniature submarines, equipped with explorers, to claim a chunk of the Arctic Ocean the size of Western Europe.
The stakes are high. The ocean is home to vast oil and mineral reserves as well as huge shoals of fish and strategically important shipping lanes.
"It could get very ugly," Huebert said. "Nobody knows how much oil and gas is down there. Shell, for example, is quite pessimistic, but the likes of Exxon are quite gung-ho. I've seen some people make the case that up to 18 per cent of the world's oil reserves are there - that's getting into Saudi Arabia's league."
To symbolise its claim, Russia will plant its flag on the sea bed before taking samples it believes will prove the Lomonosov Ridge, which runs underneath the Arctic Ocean, is an extension of the Siberian continental shelf and therefore Russian territory.
The expedition is led by Artur Chilingarov, Russia's most famous explorer. A sturdy 68-year-old with a sweeping salt-and-pepper beard, could be seen last week pacing the decks of his ship, the Akademik Fyodorov, followed by a posse of state television journalists.
"The Arctic is Russian," Chilingarov said. "We must prove the North Pole is an extension of the Russian coastal shelf. Of course, [the expedition] is important in terms of science, but also in terms of geopolitics as well."
Yesterday two Russian deep-sea submersibles made a test dive in polar waters. Itar-Tass news agency said it took an hour for Mir-1 and Mir-2, each carrying one pilot, to reach the seabed at a depth of 1311m, 87km north of Russia's northernmost archipelago, Franz Josef Land in the Barents Sea.
Tass said Mir-1 resurfaced after five hours underwater while Mir-2 spent some more time on the seabed collecting samples.
"It was the first time a submersible worked under the icecap and it proved they can do this," Tass quoted Anatoly Sagalevich, the pilot of Mir-1, as saying.
The Russian mission involves a nuclear-powered icebreaker smashing through the ice to clear a path to the Pole for the Akademik Fyodorov, which will launch the submersibles.
There has never been a manned journey to the sea bed of the North Pole.
"Who knows, we may even discover some as yet unknown organism," said Valery Kuznetsov, head of the expedition's oceanography team.
In 2001, Russia made a similar claim to the Arctic Ocean but its evidence was disputed. An official panel of experts backed by the United Nations has been established to consider claims and Russia is determined to prove its case.
A UN convention dictates that countries bordering the Arctic Ocean can exploit resources within a 370km economic zone of their territory. But this can be extended if a country can, as the Russians are attempting, prove the continental shelf beneath the ocean is connected to their land.
So far the US has refused to engage in the debate over extending exploitation rights, a policy throwback to the 1980s when the Reagan Administration feared such an action would see large parts of the Arctic handed over to the Soviets.
Canada and Denmark, through its sovereignty over Greenland, claim the Lomonosov Ridge is connected to their territories and therefore the ocean is effectively their property. In a sign of how tense the situation is becoming, the Canadian Government recently placed a C$7 billion ($8.6 billion) order for new naval patrol vessels, a move Prime Minister Stephen Harper said was designed to "defend its sovereignty over the Arctic".
But the battle for the Arctic is fast becoming a global issue. Melting ice has meant the opening up of the North West Passage to commercial shipping is now possible in the summer months and, given rising temperatures, a possibility all year round. The opening up of the passage can shorten the distance ships have to travel between Europe and Asia by up to 2000 nautical miles through the Panama Canal.
"The Russians are rebuilding their Navy," Huebert said. "They've just launched a submarine for the first time since 1987 and they've placed orders for three more."
Soaring oil prices have created a new urgency among the countries competing to make their claim. When oil prices were low it was considered uneconomic to tap into the Arctic Ocean's reserves. But with China and India desperate for energy, oil prices are spiralling. Experts say oil prices of around US$70 a barrel makes drilling in the Arctic a viable proposition.
In 2004, a joint Swedish and Russian venture proved it was possible to drill into the ocean's floor from a rig secured by three ships. There are also large mineral deposits and coal beds in the Arctic and the prospect of opening up vast new fish reserves as ice cover disappears.
Scientists point out that the region is important because the effects of climate change are more pronounced here, and arrive earlier, than in any other part of the world.
When things go wrong, they are first noticed in the Arctic. But if oil companies and mining firms start pumping out carbon dioxide and other waste as they open up the region, the pristine conditions that have helped scientists make past observations will be destroyed, obscuring our view of our warming world.
Nevertheless, hopes remain that a diplomatic conclusion can be achieved to resolve what has been dubbed the "battle for the North Pole".
Observers point to the Antarctic Treaty, which severely limits the exploitation of the land mass around the South Pole. No waste disposal, no mining, no introduction of animal species and no commercial work have been allowed on the continent for more than 40 years.
Some diplomats have suggested that a similar set of rules could be agreed for the Arctic. But such a plan is unlikely to succeed.
"The South Pole is an expensive place to exploit and it was realised that if everyone agreed not to touch it, they could all rest easy about pouring millions into the area. This is not the issue with the Arctic. It is becoming easier and easier to exploit. Nations aren't going to give up on these rich pickings."
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