It comes amid uncertainty about the future of the United States’ own sixth-generation fighter initiative – known as the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Programme. Projected costs for each of the future US aircraft are estimated to reach hundreds of millions of dollars, and the Air Force in November decided to defer key decisions about the project’s direction to the incoming Trump administration.
The Chinese display of new military technology also follows criticism from Elon Musk – whom President-elect Donald Trump has tasked with advising on budget cuts – regarding the F-35 fifth-generation fighter jet programme, which has been saddled with faulty technology and cost overruns. Musk called the F-35 builders, Lockheed Martin, “idiots” and suggested that manned fighter jets should be replaced with drones.
“It seems quite intentional that [the Chinese military] wanted us to see this aircraft flying. I would think personally that the timing on this is really curious because they’re aware of this debate and it almost seems designed to influence that debate,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center.
Amid uncertainty over the manned fighter project, Pentagon officials have said they want to create an unmanned “hellscape” of drones to defend Taiwan. “[China] might be more worried about the United States Air Force going in that direction,” Grieco said.
The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment on the apparent test flights. China’s Defence Ministry and state media published no details of the flights – which Chinese netizens pointed out coincided with Mao Tse-tung’s birthday.
There is no set pattern in how Beijing unveils new military breakthroughs, though often it is on dates that mark national anniversaries. The maiden flight of the J-20 in 2011 coincided with a visit by then-US Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Beijing, and it was widely viewed as an effort by Beijing to signal its military might.
Domestic Chinese media reported that the test flights took place around 4pm on Thursday at the Huangtianba Airbase near Chengdu, home to the airfields of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation – a subsidiary of a state-owned aircraft conglomerate tasked with designing and manufacturing some of the country’s most advanced combat aircraft, including the J-20.
It has long been known that Beijing – with the United States and other major powers – is pursuing what is broadly referred to as sixth-generation fighter capabilities. These encompass a range of potential breakthroughs, including AI-driven autonomy, hypersonic speed, advanced electronic warfare systems and next-level stealth technology – all of which could give Beijing an edge in a potential conflict around Taiwan or the South China Sea.
The initial images of the new aircraft provide no concrete evidence of such capabilities. However, analysts note that the designs hint at a significant leap forward from the country’s fifth-generation fighters, including the Chengdu J-20, which has undergone several major upgrades over the past decade.
It’s not clear from the images whether either of the test aircraft would be a successor to that model. The J-20 is designed as a long-range stealth fighter and has featured prominently in increasingly aggressive drills circling the self-governed island of Taiwan. China has also produced a smaller fifth-generation stealth aircraft called the J-35, which has yet to be used in major drills but is expected to be deployed for shorter-range carrier-based operations in the coming years.
A maiden test flight of a sixth-generation aircraft would underscore the rapid pace of China’s ambitious efforts to modernise its military.
In an annual report to Congress released this month, the Pentagon noted that Beijing is quickly closing the gap with the United States in advanced airpower, making significant strides in unmanned aircraft and increasing the proportion of advanced fighter jets in its ranks.
Wider production of a sixth-generation Chinese jet could still be many years off. The fifth-generation J-20 only began mass production around 2017, according to Chinese media reports. The Pentagon estimates that the majority of China’s fighters - around 1300 of a total 1900 – are fourth-generation planes.
China is pressing ahead with its goal of building a “world-class military” by the middle of the century, aiming to match or surpass the United States despite recent setbacks.
A sweeping anti-corruption crackdown has ensnared key military units over the past 18 months, including the disappearance of two top defence ministers. The campaign initially targeted the PLA Rocket Force, which oversees the country’s strategic missile systems, but has since widened.
This week, two more generals were removed from key positions, overseeing critical aspects of China’s military strategy in the army and the South China Sea navy.
– Washington Post
