NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Herald NOW
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
  • Herald NOW
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Politics
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Herald NOW
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / World

Apocalypse soon? A disturbing doomsday article has divided scientists

By Benedict Brook
news.com.au·
16 Jul, 2017 01:11 AM6 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Wallace-Wells' essay in New York magazine, entitled ' The Uninhabitable Earth ', has ruffled feathers. Photo / 123RF

Wallace-Wells' essay in New York magazine, entitled ' The Uninhabitable Earth ', has ruffled feathers. Photo / 123RF

Scientists have said a hugely controversial article that predicts a climate change driven apocalypse is "scary" and "embellished" but entirely plausible despite the extreme scenario dividing climatologists worldwide.

David Wallace-Wells' startling - and unashamedly doom ridden - essay in New York magazine, entitled ' The Uninhabitable Earth ', has ruffled feathers, reports news.com.

"I promise, it is worse than you think," he says in the opening line of the article published last week.

Even if Australians manage to survive major cities being in "permanent extreme drought" or poisonous sea "burps" it's likely we'll be finished off by "rolling death smogs" or "perpetual war" instead, the article states.

Doomsday could occur by the end of the century.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Mr Wallace-Wells' piece has been heavily criticised. But not by the climate sceptics - it's climate scientists who are up in arms, claiming it is "irresponsible" and "alarmist".

Respected climatologist Michael E Mann, director of the Earth System Science Centre at Pennsylvania State University, has said the "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence ... [and this] article fails to produce it."

Richard Betts, from the UK's University of Exeter told website Climate Feedback,
the Earth becoming uninhabitable within the timescale suggested was "pure hyperbole."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

This is a deeply irresponsible article, cherry-picking doomsday scenarios. Climate change is real and serious, but this is stretching... https://t.co/kEPhvGaywf

— Dr. Jonathan Foley (@GlobalEcoGuy) July 10, 2017

But Australian climate scientists news.com.au spoke to said while some of the descriptions of the future earth were fanciful (one called them "dramatised"), fanciful didn't mean they were false.

"It's absolutely true these things could happen," said Dr Liz Hanna, President of the Climate and Health Alliance and a researcher into the health impacts of climate change at the Australian National University (ANU).

"It's alarming but not alarmist."

Professor Will Steffen of the Climate Council of Australia said the predictions were not from "ultra greenies" but were a sober assessment of the societal collapse extreme climate change could bring.

Discover more

New Zealand

Q&A: Antarctica's new trillion-tonne iceberg

13 Jul 12:43 AM
World

'Sixth mass extinction already underway'

13 Jul 01:37 AM
Opinion

Roughan: Give de Freitas marks for courage

14 Jul 05:00 PM
Lifestyle

Is the world going to end tomorrow?

22 Sep 01:22 AM

THE MOST DIRE PREDICTIONS

In his essay, Mr Wallace-Wells says the effects of global warming were already happening.
The Global Seed Vault, surrounded by supposedly permanent ice, has flooded.

On Wednesday, a trillion-ton block of ice twice the size of the Australian Capital Territory sheared off from the Antarctic ice sheet. The last three years have been the hottest on record globally.

The articles he said, "was not a series of predictions of what will happen. Instead, it is a portrait of our best understanding of where the planet is heading absent aggressive action."

The outlook was dire. "No plausible program of emissions reductions can prevent climate disaster.

"Most people talk as if Miami and Bangladesh still have a chance of surviving; most of the scientists I spoke with assume we'll lose them within the century."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

He writes that the Earth had a mass extinction 250 million years ago when the planet warmed by five degrees triggering the release of methane encased in Arctic ice.

"This ended up with 97 per cent of all life on Earth dead. We are currently adding carbon to the atmosphere at a faster rate".

That same melting ice could also release dormant deadly diseases frozen in time, such as smallpox and the plague.

It is deeply gratifying, and deeply humbling, to see so many scientists engaging so deeply with the story.

— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) July 13, 2017

HUMANS COOKED FROM INSIDE OUT

The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, which the USA has withdrawn from, has an aim of holding the increase in global temperatures to "well below 2C" above pre-industrial levels. Many climate scientists think this goal is already unachievable.

Mr Wallace-Wells said if global temperatures rose by around 4C, hot and humid equatorial regions would be unliveable.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"Within a few hours, a human body would be cooked to death from both inside and out."
Oceanic acidification could kill off fish creating "dead zones' and poisonous hydrogen "sulphide burps" might bubble up from the sea floor.

In a 4C warmer world, the Earth's ecosystem - Australia included - will boil with a constant swarm of tornadoes, floods and droughts, "that not so long ago destroyed whole civilisations."

It's depressing stuff and, in a Facebook post, Penn State's Prof Miller, hit back claiming some of the data used was "just not true".

"The article argues that climate change will render the Earth uninhabitable by the end of this century. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The article fails to produce it."

Prof Marr added, he "was not a fan of this sort of doomist framing," which spread "a sense of doom and hopelessness".

Mr Wallace-Wells has said his critics who paint the article as being just a worst-case scenario miss the point. "[That] is a factual description of the story and its explicit goals", he said on Twitter.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

ULTRA GREENIES

Mr Steffen, an ANU emeritus professor, told news.com.au there were issues with the piece but it still painted a realistic picture.

"[The article] was dramatised and somewhat embellished but it did raise an important issue and that's if you look at this one per cent to five per cent risk you get pretty scary and plausible scenarios."

Despite the low probability of the various horrors coming true, we ignored them at our peril, he said.

"A one per cent risk to aviation industry would mean maybe ten planes crashing a day and that's not a risk we would tolerate."

"These are not wild risks being put forward by ultra greenies - they are sober risks understood by people in the Pentagon and Australian military," Prof Steffen told news.com.au. "It's not far fetched if the Pentagon are looking at it."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

SOCIETY COULD COLLAPSE

"When people can't eat they fight, move or do both but they don't just sit there and starve.

"It's not at all too big a stretch to say society could collapse.
"By the end of the century the population could drop from seven billion to one billion because what you're facing is a changing rainfall regimen that will wreak havoc with global food systems and see sea level rises which could inundate industrial areas."

Dr Hanna agreed the bleak future prophesied was more plausible.

"Could parts of the world become uninhabitable? A definite yes.

"Darwin is already problematic in the build-up and could become problematic for everyone aside from extremophile for much of the year."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The "permanent extreme drought" predicted to afflict densely populated parts of Australia might not come to pass, she said, but devastatingly deep and longer lasting droughts certainly could.

There were brighter spots, she said, including the rise of renewables, despite them becoming a political punch bag,

Even Mr Wallace-Wells has hope pointing to the success in gradually depleting the hole in the ozone layer.

Dr Hanna says she has little time for the argument that such apocalyptic descriptions should be kept from the public.

"Some say that people will be paralysed by fear, 'what can li'l old me do about it?'
"But if we tell people how grizzly it could become, it might not lead to paralysis - it could jolt them into action," she said.

"By the time people go 'sh** we're in real trouble now,' it could be too late."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Save

    Share this article

Latest from World

World

'Most horrific attacks': Russian strikes on Kyiv kill 14, injure dozens

17 Jun 08:03 AM
World

'No sense': Defence challenges motive in mushroom poisoning case

17 Jun 07:34 AM
World

'Everyone evacuate': Trump's warning amid G7 Middle East talks

17 Jun 07:15 AM

Jono and Ben brew up a tea-fuelled adventure in Sri Lanka

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from World

'Most horrific attacks': Russian strikes on Kyiv kill 14, injure dozens

'Most horrific attacks': Russian strikes on Kyiv kill 14, injure dozens

17 Jun 08:03 AM

Twenty-seven locations in Kyiv were hit, including residential buildings.

'No sense': Defence challenges motive in mushroom poisoning case

'No sense': Defence challenges motive in mushroom poisoning case

17 Jun 07:34 AM
'Everyone evacuate': Trump's warning amid G7 Middle East talks

'Everyone evacuate': Trump's warning amid G7 Middle East talks

17 Jun 07:15 AM
Body in bushland confirmed as missing teen Pheobe Bishop

Body in bushland confirmed as missing teen Pheobe Bishop

17 Jun 04:47 AM
Help for those helping hardest-hit
sponsored

Help for those helping hardest-hit

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP