Palestinian militants watch a handover of remains between Hamas and the Red Cross as part of a ceasefire deal with Israel, near Khan Younis, Gaza Strip, in February. Analysts say that despite its vast losses in Gaza, Hamas believes it can hold out for a deal that ensures its survival. Photo / Saher Alghorra, The New York Times
Israel has killed thousands of Hamas’ fighters, taken out most of its senior military command and destroyed much of its arsenal and underground tunnel network.
The country’s relentless military campaign has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, cities have been reduced to rubble, and people have struggled daily to find enough food, water and electricity.
And yet Hamas has refused to surrender. The group wants to secure its future in the Gaza Strip, but its unwillingness to give up to Israel and disarm is also rooted in its ideology.
Since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which ignited the war in Gaza, the group’s leaders have acknowledged that the resulting Israeli counterattack has caused enormous destruction. They have said it is a “price” Palestinians must pay for their ultimate freedom.
In interviews, some Hamas leaders have said that the group’s calculation was less about defeating Israel on the battlefield, and more about drawing the Government into an intractable conflict, one that isolates it diplomatically and undermines its international support.
Eventually, they say, Israel will be compelled to realise that its policies towards Palestinians are not sustainable.
“Surrender, as Israel and America are calling for it, is not in Hamas’ dictionary,” said Khaled al-Hroub, a professor at Northwestern University in Qatar who has written books about the group.
Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the leader of Hamas’ military wing, said recently that if he cannot get what he described as an honourable deal to end the war with Israel, then the conflict would become a war of liberation or the group would face “martyrdom”, according to a senior Middle Eastern intelligence official familiar with al-Haddad’s thinking.
What Hamas considers to be an “honourable deal” is an agreement that could lead to the end of the war and enable the group to continue wielding power in Gaza.
Hamas has previously agreed to temporary ceasefires with Israel in part to provide relief to people in Gaza.
It has firmly rejected ending the war on terms set by Israel, which has demanded the group disarm and send its leaders into exile, and has shown a willingness to tolerate the ongoing suffering of civilians in pursuit of the deal that it wants.
There are no suggestions that Hamas’ position is shifting. Last week, it released a statement reiterating that it was ready to accept a deal that would see the release of all remaining hostages held in Gaza in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners, an end to the war and a withdrawal of Israeli forces.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas by force or dismantle it through negotiation and has rebuffed any deal on the end of the conflict that would leave the group intact.
Civilians in Gaza have paid the highest price for the continuation of the war.
“Have Hamas’ weapons stopped Israel from killing us?” said Abdullah Shehab, 32, who has been staying at his sister’s home in Gaza City since he was forced to leave his hometown, Jabalia, at the end of May.
“Have they stopped Israel from invading our cities? The only thing Hamas’ weapons have done is given Israel a justification to continue the massacres.”
During the October attack, some 1200 people were killed and about 250 others were abducted, according to Israeli authorities.
While Hamas has celebrated the attack, more than 60,000 people in Gaza have been killed in the ensuing war, said the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
The seemingly irreconcilable positions of Hamas and Israel on how to end the war suggest that the fighting will continue until one side is forced to compromise.
And Hamas believes that Israel will eventually come to terms with an agreement that does not require the group to give in, Palestinian political analysts say.
“They know that the continuation of the war is very costly, but they’re hopeful that they’ll get a deal they can live with, if they remain patient and steadfast,” said Esmat Mansour, a Palestinian analyst who spent years in Israeli prisons with several top Hamas leaders.
“They see the internal and external pressure on Israel to end the war and they know that Israel can’t free the captives without them,” he added.
“So they’re saying to themselves, ‘Why should we surrender when we can get something better?’”
Still, Mansour said, Hamas may conclude that to maintain some power it needs to make difficult concessions, like suspending military recruitment and training and putting its weapons in storage, potentially overseen by a third party.
Ibrahim Madhoun, a Palestinian analyst close to Hamas, said the group needed “an exit” from the war. “The problem is Israel has closed all the exits,” he said.
Hamas, at least publicly, has refused to entertain discussions about abandoning its weapons or sending its commanders into exile.
Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official, framed the group’s refusal to surrender as safeguarding Palestinians.
“We’re dealing with an extremist government that carried out massacres at the expense of our people and that is still plotting the killing, slaughter and expulsion of our people,” he said in a text message.
“We can’t stop defending ourselves and our people in light of the impotence of the international community and the clear American complicity.
“Without a clear political agreement that protects the Palestinian people and its land, the resistance will continue its fight,” Badran added.
Another Hamas official, Taher El-Nounou, recently suggested that the war could ultimately turn in Hamas’ favour, a result that appears unlikely given Israel’s military advantage.
Asked on Russia Today’s Arabic-language channel whether carrying out the 2023 attack had been the right decision, he said nobody could judge the results of the war while it was still ongoing.
“Before the Normandy landing, Germany was occupying almost all of Europe,” he said, referring to a costly but decisive battle during World War II. “After that landing, the situation changed.”
Residents of Gaza are facing the reality that the war could drag on into a third year. Though outraged by Israel’s continued bombing campaign, many are also frustrated with Hamas.
Conceding defeat, Shehab, the displaced man in Gaza City, said, would be the least Hamas could do to take responsibility for “the catastrophic error” of the October 2023 attack — one that “caused plunder greater than the Nakba of 1948”, the dispossession and displacement of Palestinians after Israel’s founding.
But he had little hope Hamas would agree to step aside. “We’re trapped,” he said.
“Honestly, the only real difference between Palestinian civilians and Israeli hostages is we’re above ground and they’re below.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
Written by: Adam Rasgon
Photographs by: Saher Alghorra
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