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Home / Travel

Why end-of-year flight prices spike and the big fares travellers face to go the UK for Christmas

Tom Rose
Tom Rose
Journalist·NZ Herald·
8 Oct, 2025 11:00 PM4 mins to read

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If you’re after a white Christmas and haven’t booked your tickets yet, you might need to factor on spending around $4000 for a return flight.

Travelling by air at the most wonderful - and busiest - time of the year is set to add hundreds - if not thousands - of dollars to your seat, especially if you haven’t yet bought your tickets.

The cheapest return flights to London from Auckland for two weeks from November 17 to 30, booked through the Air New Zealand website, are currently sitting at $2944.

Leaving one month later, from December 17 to 30, to make it there for Christmas, will make prices jump by a minimum of $1000, with the cheapest option setting you back $4069 return.

But if a loved one’s coming home to New Zealand and needs to head back to Heathrow on January 3, their one-way flight will cost $2994 - the most expensive over the holiday period - if booked today.

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One-way flights from Auckland to London Heathrow can set you back up to $2,994 over the holiday period - and they're bound to still rise. Photo / 123rf
One-way flights from Auckland to London Heathrow can set you back up to $2,994 over the holiday period - and they're bound to still rise. Photo / 123rf

Why do flight prices always soar in December?

New Zealand’s geographical isolation, seasonal pricing and the flurry of gatherings involving family and friends often put the pressure on Kiwis’ travel budgets over Christmas and New Year, adding avoidable stress to the end-of-year rush.

Expedia told the Herald that bookings for the festive season enter full swing in the final three months, and Kylie Mcgillivray-Brown - Air New Zealand’s long-haul general manager - stressed this period is one of the busiest.

“Last summer, nearly three million customers flew with us across December and January, with our busiest day seeing over 50,000 people take to the skies across our domestic and international networks,” she said.

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“Many Kiwis book their Christmas travel well ahead. By early July, half of all long-haul bookings are already made, and by the end of August, flights across the Tasman are around half full.”

Most airlines use a supply and demand-based system, she said, with different fare prices seen on every route.

“By the time the festive season arrives, the lowest fares have been snapped up.”

By early July, half of Air New Zealand's long-haul Christmas flights are already booked, says long-haul general manager Kylie Mcgillivray-Brown.
By early July, half of Air New Zealand's long-haul Christmas flights are already booked, says long-haul general manager Kylie Mcgillivray-Brown.

Vannessa Park, House of Travel’s head of air commercial, said the cheapest fares on international departures from December 11 quickly sell out, with pressure on return flights extending through to early February.

“We’re at the bottom of the world, with fewer airline carriers and a very defined peak travel season when the globe is moving.

“Airlines add extra services over summer to bring visitors into New Zealand, but that also means Kiwis flying out are competing with the inbound market and it’s a supply and demand squeeze.”

How can I avoid sky-high flight costs?

Expedia suggested broadening your horizons beyond your destination if it’s a holiday hotspot, as there’ll often be better deals and fewer people heading elsewhere, and prioritising research for the most accessible and convenient destinations can also bring better value for money.

“Asian destinations like Malaysia, Japan and Thailand have a good exchange rate, keeping on the ground costs cheaper.”

Down-starring on accommodation may help you stay within budget if the costs grow significantly, and Christmas Day travel - while unusual - is generally cheaper and quieter as people prefer travelling before or after, Expedia added.

“Asian destinations like Malaysia, Japan and Thailand have a good exchange rate, keeping on the ground costs cheaper," Expedia says. Photo / 123rf
“Asian destinations like Malaysia, Japan and Thailand have a good exchange rate, keeping on the ground costs cheaper," Expedia says. Photo / 123rf

“Make sure to try and book the earliest flight possible to reduce the risk of delays.”

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Mcgillivray-Brown said flights tend to go on sale 12 months prior to departure, so booking early is the best way to secure a low fare.

“For those with flexibility, even shifting travel by a day, can make a real difference.”

Park said holding off on booking now will mean “seasonal pricing and fewer seats on the flights you actually want”.

“If you’re flexible, travelling between Christmas and New Year can offer better value.”

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