Conflicting weather models for the start of the Sydney to Hobart have the star-studded fleet guessing, but organisers remain hopeful of a race record.
Skippers from the fleet of 100 yachts are weighing up unusually contrasting forecasts for the Boxing Day start of the 628 nautical mile race.
One model
is forecasting southerly breezes, while another is suggesting northerlies will have kicked in by the 1pm (AEDT) start on Sydney Harbour when the fleet heads south.
The two models agree more on likely conditions after the first 12 hours, with freshening noreasterly breezes on Sunday, before a possible switch to 20 knot westerly breezes on Monday night.
"On a normal weather synopsis, you can often predict with a reasonable degree of accuracy," said Cruising Yacht Club of Australia Commodore Matt Allen. "But this year, I think, at the beginning of the race it's pretty uncertain because we're trying to get the timing of this front coming through and the trough that is overhanging."
Allen said there was a "minuscule chance" that ex-tropical cyclone Laurence could impact on the race, but predicted "good fresh wet sailing" rather than anything potentially dangerous.
He said calculations using one weather model had Wild Oats XI finishing the race in one day, 14 hours - more than four hours ahead of its existing race record.
However, Allen added the current forecasts made it unusually hard to predict which type of boats would flourish in the battle for handicap honours.
Mike Slade, captain of British line honours contender ICAP Leopard, believes the forecast could possibly be the best yet for his fourth and potentially final crack at the event. However, he was reluctant to suggest his well-performed maxi could trump archrivals Wild Oats XI and New Zealand's Alfa Romeo.
"These sorts of conditions, as a choice from a blank sheet of paper, are looking pretty good now, but I'd hate to say that we could take out Wild Oats," Slade told reporters. "It's an unbelievable boat and probably one of the best boats that you would ever see in terms of consistency and speed. That boat is amazing."
Slade said Leopard was as well prepared as it possibly could be despite its late arrival in Australia.
He believed conditions were unlikely to favour the maxis in the battle for handicap honours.
"It's certainly not looking like a big-boat race," Slade said. "You might get a very small boat actually winning this, which is great."
Geoff Ross, skipper of the 16.7m perennial handicap contender Yendys, rated it the most competitive chase for overall honours in his 15 starts.
The local contingent is keeping a wary eye on Britain's recently launched 21.9m Ran, the overall winner of the Rolex Fastnet race.
"We're all a bit cautious of Ran, the new kid on the block, it's a fantastic looking boat," said Loki navigator Michael Bellingham.
Loki, which finished second in the lead-up Rolex Trophy Ratings Series despite damage, is expected back on the water today.
- AAP
Conflicting weather models for the start of the Sydney to Hobart have the star-studded fleet guessing, but organisers remain hopeful of a race record.
Skippers from the fleet of 100 yachts are weighing up unusually contrasting forecasts for the Boxing Day start of the 628 nautical mile race.
One model
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