One of the underground whispers that began to get louder after two of the four days were completed is whether the challengers are deliberately not showing their stuff when racing against the Kiwis.
The three races Team NZ has had so far went like this: Luna Rossa withdrew after an electronics shutdown during the race. On day two, Ineos Britannia tried a tricky (some would say hopelessly optimistic) manoeuvre in the vital pre-start and fell off the foils - gifting the race to the Kiwis. The French made their way to the start ... but didn’t, citing unspecified “technical issues”.
There had been some earlier rumours in yachting-land, you see, that one or more of the challengers would decline to race against the Kiwis. Why show the defenders, with all their advantages, what you’ve got, right? Better (the conspiracists say) to keep secrets intact either by not starting or splashing down soon after getting up to speed.
That view gathered pace when the Brits tried their ambitious move against Team NZ in the pre-start manoeuvres – and discovered that ambition needed more fuel coming from the cyclors and stalled. In the Kiwis’ next race, the French politely declined to take part, so Team NZ have had three races but no real wins.
It may only be tonight, when Team NZ take on Alinghi, that conspiracy could be confirmed if the Swiss yacht also mysteriously develops some sort of flat tyre before/during the race with Taihoro. If you believe the gossip, Alinghi are the ones most opposed to racing against Team NZ in the preliminaries and, given the history between these two teams, we can’t rule anything out.
However, in my view, it’s a bit too woo-woo to think there’ll be four days of sailing with everyone deliberately falling off their foils against the Kiwis. The Italians almost certainly simply had one of those electronic horror days – like when your computer randomly shuts down and you lose all the work of the last two hours. The French just aren’t ready yet – and they’d surely benefit more from sailing their boat than not.
It makes you realise, however, just how far divorced the America’s Cup is these days from sailing. I mean, the yacht won’t go because the computer malfunctioned? Reboot … and watch out for Russian hackers. It’s sailing, Jim, but not as we know it.
However, there are some assumptions that can be made after two days of racing, even though assumptions are like opinions: everybody makes them and they may or may not have some acquaintance with accuracy.
First, the disclaimer. There are many variables that could result in all the confident assumptions below turning into the stuff your dog sicks up when he’s eaten something vile: course management, tactics, sailing skills, sea and wind conditions, winning the pre-start, the ability to find wind shifts/good pressure – and not optimising your yacht in its best gear to fool the opposition. There is also the intricate art of finding ways to make your AC75 foiling monohull go faster. At successive America’s Cups involving foiling yachts, we’ve seen that sailing, shore and design crews can make incremental (and sometimes telling) changes to the boat’s configuration during the regatta to produce winning results.
So take this with a pinch of salt washed down with saltwater:
- Italy’s Luna Rossa and American Magic appear to be the most dangerous challengers to Emirates Team NZ. Could they be the two boats in the Louis Vuitton final?
- Patriot, American Magic’s boat, has a different design, including recumbent cyclors producing the power the boat needs to operate the electrics and hydraulics. Everyone knows that lying down doesn’t produce the same amount of pedal power as sitting – but the cyclors are hidden away and that and other aero measures on this boat suggest the Americans might be on to something.
- Ineos Britannia, in spite of all that F1 expertise from Mercedes, seem to have speed problems thus far, though there were some promising signs. After his race on the first day, skipper Sir Ben Ainslie looked like someone had stolen his laundry, only the laundry cost about $220 million and he didn’t have anything else to wear. He then fell off the foils in the pre-start on day two, giving open water to Team NZ. The Brits were slow and ungainly in Auckland in 2021 and don’t look much different yet in Barcelona.
- The French team, Orient Express, look worst off. Their AC75 is an earlier version of Team NZ’s Taihoro. It looks competitive but it’s hard to tell because the French sailed so poorly on the first day that their yacht could just as well have been named Tai Hoa.
- The Italians look to have a fast boat, but their electronics shutdown on day one started a few conspiracy theorists emerging from their rabbit holes – that’s when my email started pinging. However, Luna Rossa didn’t show its paces until its second race, against the French and beat American Magic – and is maybe best pick, at this stage, to sail against Team NZ in the cup match.
