Super Rugby Pacific final: How the Blues v Chiefs game can be won – Tight Five

The Blues have reached the final in Super Rugby Pacific. Photo / Photosport

Elliott Smith is Newstalk ZB and Gold Sport’s lead rugby commentator and reporter. He’s been a sports journalist since 2010 and has travelled to three Rugby World Cups.

ANALYSIS

Blues v Chiefs, Super Rugby Pacific final, Eden Park 7.05pm Saturday

A question... Could we be about to witness one of the great foxing efforts in rugby come to completion? If the Chiefs pull off victory in the Super Rugby Pacific final tomorrow night, it might go down as one. Rarely during the regular season, with two losses to the Hurricanes, one to the Blues and another to the woeful Crusaders from the New Zealand teams alone, did they look like the championship contenders they had been picked as in pre-season, given how close they got in 2023. But in the past two weeks, they’ve looked a different side, like they’d planned it all this way.

A suggestion... They’ve had injuries, but the lift in intensity feels like the lesson has been learned from last year, when they set the pace and then lost in the playoffs to a Crusaders side who had been creaking during the regular season but then eviscerated the Blues when it mattered most in the semifinal and took advantage of a Chiefs side who lost their heads in the decider. It may just be a coincidence but after they were comfortably beaten by the Blues in the final round of the season, Chiefs coach (and prophet) Clayton McMillan crystal ball-gazed that he’d see us (the media) back here in three weeks... so it will be.

An explanation... While the Chiefs may have timed their run to perfection, it does point to some of the issues with Super Rugby and the current format. The lack of jeopardy on their playoff spot from a long way out – even with their losses to the New Zealand sides – meant they knew they would be good enough to get fourth and then get to the final from there. A trickier path than the top two seeds sure, but not insurmountable. Whether the Blues have learned the lessons of the past two years will be a fascinating subtext: they found they didn’t have another level to go to in two consecutive years against the Crusaders – but with that Big Bad Wolf gone, will they finally find their path cleared to the trophy?

An observation... The appointment of Australian Nic Berry to the Super final is utterly perplexing, particularly when Ben O’Keeffe – the best referee in either Australia or New Zealand – didn’t get a semifinal or the final. Berry is not Australia’s best referee either – that honour surely goes to Angus Gardner, even if it felt like he had a slightly off game in the semifinal between the Hurricanes and the Chiefs. On the surface of it, this seems to be an Aussie push to make the final seem less like a New Zealand domestic final and more an international product, given it will be an all-West Island officiating quartet. Handy for the Blues and Chiefs players who will be named in the All Blacks though – Berry will have the whistle for the second test against England, again at Eden Park.

A prediction... Avoiding the ire of Berry will be key for two players in particular tomorrow night in the decider, in which discipline will go a long way to deciding the match. Chiefs skipper Luke Jacobson has been pinged 19 times this season (second overall) and departing Blues flanker Akira Ioane 16 times (fourth). Neither can afford to add too much to that tally tomorrow night, in what will likely be a game of inches.

Follow the Super Rugby final at nzherald.co.nz, and join Elliott Smith, Ant Strachan and Nathan Limm for full match commentary live on GOLD SPORT & iHeartRadio.