Waterloo for men in white

By DAVID LEGGAT at the World Cup

SYDNEY - A bachelor's degree in rugby strategy is not required to work out how tomorrow's semifinal will be played.

There has been a perceptible swing in favouritism for what is expected to be a colossal contest between France and England.

Just as the French have grown in stature to the point where they will be slight favourites to take a place in next week's final, so it is obvious that England's grand plan of forward dominance, plus Jonny Wilkinson's boot, has had a case of the wobbles.

Of the four semifinalists, France have been the most relaxed, in large part due to their untroubled progress. Their confidence is high, there are no signs of the in-house fractiousness that has been a part of all their previous cup campaigns, and they are playing well.

England have had three awkward games in which their lack of pace among the pack has been exposed. There are no signs that they can vary from plan A, although the inclusion of Mike Catt at second five-eighth hints that they will go for more tactical kicking and look to play the game in the French half.

Twelve years ago, England went against the tactics that had got them to the final, threw the ball to the backs, who were unable to get a break against the Wallabies. Australia won and England were condemned for a strategic blunder.

That won't happen this time. In any case, they are too far down this particular road to find a turnoff now.



England have gambled - although they strongly dispute that - by bringing Richard Hill to reunite their fine loose-forward trio. Hill has not played since the first game, against Georgia in mid-October, but he is a tremendous footballer and works well with Neil Back and Lawrence Dallaglio.

They will win their lineouts and will maul vigorously to try to keep the French pack fully occupied, play the game at their preferred pace and reduce the impact of France's flying flankers, Serge Betsen and Olivier Magne.

And, of course, they will lean on Wilkinson to kick his goals. It's worth noting that he has averaged 15 points a game in his 50 tests.

The growing unease among English followers that this campaign is six months too late for England is a valid consideration. It will be even more relevant if France can enact their game plan.

They will look to do what Wales did in last weekend's quarter-final - play at pace, get the ball across the field and keep England's lumbering forwards on the run. It's not rocket science, but none of England's opponents have been good enough to carry it out for 80 minutes.

France won't back away from a forward tussle. Their scrum is excellent, their loose forwards the most formidable combination in the tournament, and their lineout strong.

In Frederic Michalak they possess the most eye-catching player in the cup at first five-eighth; Tony Marsh is the midfield glue in the backline; and there is pace out wide.

Their talismanic leader and halfback, Fabien Galthie, retires after the cup. He has been beaten by England often enough to discount talk of England's best days being behind them.

"How could you be stupid enough to discount the English? They haven't shown their best form, perhaps, but they are still alive and dangerous and strong."

France will lean heavily on Galthie's wise head - and Michalak being given his head to run the show.

Only the French could come up with this way of describing their relationship: "For us Fabien and Freddy are like a couple," said manager Jo Maso.

"We would hate for them to have a row; hate for somebody to come between them. The last thing we want is a menage a trois."

There is one point in England's favour. As they were battling their way unconvincingly into the last four, France have had the run of all their games to date. Wallaby coach Eddie Jones, who confessed he had no idea who would win, did have a relevant point to make.

"After 30 minutes you'll know who is going to win. The only thing I would say is that the French haven't been stretched in their games."

The point is obvious. France's discipline has been outstanding so far, but that is the one question-mark that always sits against them. Get under their skin, disrupt what has been working so well and they could implode.

England are full of hard-headed, seasoned campaigners. They won't go down without a huge scrap.

But all the signs point to France meeting the All Blacks in a week.

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