Super Rugby Pacific: Vern Cotter’s Blues win but lack killer instinct in key matches - Tight Five with Elliott Smith

Elliott Smith analyses the biggest talking points from Super Rugby Pacific.

An observation...

Winning papers over everything. And luckily for the Blues, they’ve done that four times out of five this season without really hitting any great heights. It’s hard to know whether coach Vern Cotter would see that as a positive or a negative, given the season is still young - but the Blues have done what they needed to in every game apart from the defeat to the Hurricanes and you could point to having to reshuffle their backs early as being one of the reasons they lost (if you were being generous).

An explanation...

The elephant in the room after their win over the Crusaders last week is that they only won by 20 points. Winning by that margin is a statement of sorts, but they could have really driven their old mates into the dirt at Eden Park and failed to do so. Ironically, it’s what the Crusaders’ sides of old would have done - make you regret even turning up to play in the first place.

A question...

How do you do so much with the ball and yet so little? The Blues monstered the comically inept Crusaders on attack - 73 per cent second-half territory, 665 running metres versus 196 and broke 44 tackles of the opposition compared to eight on their defence, yet they bagged just two tries and both were when the Crusaders were down a man to 14, shortly after the second spell began. That’s without mentioning the Crusaders losing nine lineouts. A 20-point win is nothing to sneeze at, but the Blues appear to lack the ability to go in for the kill. How they managed just two tries and failed to grab a bonus point in a game they had all rights to win by a lot more might be crucial later in the season when the ladder shakes down. Their two-point win over the Waratahs a week prior was also a lot closer than it had any right to be.

A suggestion...

It’s clear that the Blues need to find a way to bring the likes of Caleb Clarke and Mark Tele’a into the game more but elsewhere they’re also somewhat of a statistical oddity through five weeks of the season and not a lot of it makes much sense. According to OptaStats, they’ve conceded the most turnovers in the competition - but have won the most turnovers. Their lineout is the most successful, but they’re in the bottom third for discipline, conceding the fourth-most penalties in the competition. All that points to a team where certain parts are clicking and others are not quite there yet.

A prediction...

Cotter will be counting the competition points in the bag (a win is a win) and the fact their tryline has been breached once in the last 160 minutes of rugby. Those are the kind of statistics a team can hang their hat on, especially with a relatively friendly run of home games coming up (although tomorrow’s match against Moana Pasifika is technically an away game at Eden Park). It’s only the sixth week of the competition but the Blues need to find a way to keep hold of the ball and find a ruthless streak as the season goes on to avoid another early exit from the playoffs.

Elliott Smith is Newstalk ZB and Gold Sport’s lead rugby commentator and reporter. He’s been a sports journalist since 2010 and has travelled to three Rugby World Cups for NZME, including commentating the Rugby World Cup final in 2023.