Semifinal heavies now feeling weight of the world on their shoulders

By WYNNE GRAY at the World Cup

SYDNEY - Then there were four. After all the warm fuzzies and 31 days, the predicted big four have worked their way into the final fortnight of competition.

There had been hints of an upset during pool play when Fiji ran Scotland close, Ireland almost took out Australia, and Samoa and Wales had a late blitz.

But for all the hopes, wishes and prayers about a major derailment, the heavies have carved their way through to the semifinals.

It was always going to be thus and in one final neat quirk of the draw, it will leave a fight for the Webb Ellis Cup between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

But as to who will be present at the November 22 final is anyone's guess. If we could explore the minds of the 30 players in each semifinal, there might be a better show of supplying an answer.

Instead, we have to judge on what they have shown so far, how adaptable their strategies have been, some history, some perception about their plans and hypotheses.

Any combination from the final four could make the final, but on the evidence so far, some weight must be given to an All Blacks/Tricolors conclusion.

They have played with more striking attack, they have more working parts to their game, they have displayed better purpose and clarity.

But installing the All Blacks as unbackable favourites to beat the Wallabies in the opening semifinal is as stupid as a halftime poll in the England/Wales game which had Jonny Wilkinson with an unassailable lead as the man of the match.

It was as bonkers as the bloke who tried to tackle Louis Koen at the end of the Springboks-Samoa test.

Many questions about their prospects have been asked of teams still in the hunt. It is a trite line of questioning, one best left to the vanquished and departed.

Why would the All Blacks consider talking about anything but the match with the Wallabies, especially after the dramas in 1999?

Any response other than "we are just concentrating on our next job" could be twisted into stories about a side who have become presumptuous and arrogant.

Not a good look, and not one the All Blacks brought to their opening media conference of the week yesterday.

They will surely take the same side into the semifinal when the team is announced today, while the Wallabies are still tinkering with their combinations.

They are also reacting to the weight of expectation in Australia, suffocating in the sweat of the spotlights as host, defending champions, mixed messages and selections from inside the camp.

About the best Eddie Jones could offer was that the Wallabies took the All Blacks to the wire in Auckland, that they had been written off at the start of the tournament and no one expected them to make it this far.

This last line was nonsense, more a reaction to some of the slapping his team have suffered from the local media. His first observation had some merit - the Wallabies had been far more effective during the last rites of the Bledisloe Cup than they had been when they were flogged in Sydney.

They had improved, markedly in defence, but still had not unveiled enough gamebreakers or players who would vie for a tournament-best side.

But if some reports are correct, Jones has had his eye on this semifinal for some time.

Unlike the Wallabies' set-piece tests against Ireland and Scotland, the semifinal will be more about momentum at the gain-line, tackle and breakdown areas.

Jones cannot ignore primary possession, but if he allows the All Blacks to go wide without any challenge, as the Boks did by selecting utility lock Danie Rossouw as one flanker, the title defence will be shattered.

There have been leaks from Camp Wallaby about these strategies, disclosures which have not yet been plugged or identified.

What is unclear is what backline Jones will settle on.

He will persevere with Stephen Larkham because of Matt Giteau's injury, but to continue with all three league converts, Lote Tuqiri, Mat Rogers and Wendell Sailor, is a high-risk strategy.

Rogers and Sailor make inroads, but have been sloppy handlers in this tournament and do not protect the ball well; the kind of turnover manna the All Blacks love to punish.

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