Rugby World Cup 2023: The three big worries for the All Blacks after the Wallabies failed in France

OPINION

Maybe it’s best not to stick the boot too vigorously into Eddie Jones. He might be a window on New Zealand’s own rugby future.

Jones made two mistakes, large ones. He put his trust in youth in the one tournament in world rugby where experience is paramount; he also made the error of overdoing the verbals in terms of putting Australian rugby back into the media and into the minds of the Aussies who couldn’t be bothered with the game any more.

It led to a coach booed when his face appeared on the big screen at a match; such a coach is of no use to anyone. There’s been damage all around - former All Blacks coach Sir Steve Hansen apparently did Jones a favour by turning up and running his eyes over the Aussies. Whatever he told Jones either didn’t make any difference or wasn’t actioned. Either way, not a good look for Hansen.

Yet what will happen in New Zealand rugby in 2024, after this World Cup? We too will have a new coach, Scott Robertson, who is being saved the bother of cleaning house when he takes over the All Blacks. That’s because this year will see the biggest exodus of senior All Blacks since 2015 when nine (10 if you count Victor Vito, who left at the end of 2016) exited. They included two of the all-time greats, Richie McCaw and Dan Carter.

This time, Aaron Smith, Richie Mo’unga, Brodie Retallick, Brad Weber, Shannon Frizell, Dane Coles, Sam Whitelock, Ardie Savea and Beauden Barrett will be gone - though Barrett originally said he wanted to return after his stint in Japan, while Savea said he’ll be back in June 2024 and will play through the 2025 season, during which he’ll turn 32.

Youth policy? You’d better believe it. Robertson has little choice. That is an enormous amount of talent and experience to lose, arguably even more than in 2015. The All Blacks managed pretty well without McCaw, Carter and the others: Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Liam Messam, Colin Slade and Ben Franks.

This time around, there are three big worries: supply, depth and maybe the gravest concern, which is being made clear by the current World Cup: Super Rugby is not the nursery it used to be for international rugby. Much of that, of course, is down to Australia’s gradual and so far irretrievable slide as an international force. Part of it can also be assigned to the loss of South Africa - and they are not returning, even if we ask them nicely.

So 2024 will be a fascinating year and may not be one where Robertson can easily fulfil the Messiah role that many have already assigned him. Pressure will be his constant companion and while, on the face of it, he has four years to develop matters, the Ian Foster saga and the way New Zealand Rugby (NZR) dealt with it, means the microscope will be trained down tightly on his particular Petri dish.

There are three main areas where new players will be required, where the supply and depth seem thinner than we are used to: lock, loose forward and first five. At lock, Tupou Vaa’i and Josh Lord have some experience and there are some youthful prospects in the Blues’ Sam Darry, the Highlanders’ Fabian Holland and the Crusaders’ Zac Gallagher - but they are a long way away from being international class yet. The other, older locks seem more like caretakers than certainties.

At first five, Fergus Burke, Brett Cameron and maybe Ruben Love seem highest-ranked but, again, are a long way from test class; you wonder if they have quite the flair of a Mo’unga or a Barrett. At loose forward, things might be a little better. Along with those deemed not good enough this time round (Samipeni Finau, Akira Ioane, Hoskins Sotutu), Ethan Blackadder (if he ever stops being injured) could replace Frizell, though New Zealand still seems short of quality No 8s. At openside, it seems likely hardworking flankers like Tom Christie, Billy Harmon and Duplessis Kirifi could come on. Christie seems to have been around forever but is still only 25.

Folau Fakatava passes the ball during the international between the Japan XV and the All Blacks XV in July. Photo / Getty Images

At halfback, New Zealand seems perennially lucky. Although the loss of Smith and Weber will be felt, aside from Cameron Roigard and Finlay Christie, players like the Highlanders’ Folau Fakatava, Noah Hotham (Crusaders) and Cortez Ratima (Chiefs) could soon make a significant mark.

But anyone who thinks the All Blacks’ production line is still spitting out world-class players at will may be sadly disappointed. Robertson’s path to the 2027 World Cup is by no means obstacle-free, particularly if Super Rugby Pacific and the NPC (not fit for purpose, according to NZR) continue to be flawed.

It may lead to one of the biggest changes of direction - certainly structurally - since 1971, when the Lions tour of New Zealand badly exposed the type of game the All Blacks were playing. In those days, however, no restructuring was required and New Zealand had a provincial set-up that still readied players for international duty. This time, we may need a total overhaul.

So, in the meantime, take it easy on Eddie. His present, or part of it, could be our future.

Paul Lewis has been a journalist since the last ice age. Sport has been a lifetime pleasure and part of a professional career during which he has written four books, covered Rugby World Cups, America’s Cups, Olympic & Commonwealth Games and more.